Fixed Limit: Know When to Hold’em, Know When to Fold’em… Part 2

Having considered in Part 1 that folding isn’t a sin, now we turn to making a stand.

Here is a typical scenario. We have AJ, raise pre-flop with three callers and the flop comes QJ2 (rainbow). We then react to checks with a bet and are met with a raise, which everyone calls. The turn brings a 6, the other two players fold to the raiser’s bet, and it’s decision time…

Eight small bets pre-flop, eight more on the flop and the current big bet total 18 small bets thus far. It is quite possible that the raiser has a stronger hand, so folding is an option. Is there an argument for calling all the way to the showdown? Well, yes.

Calling here and on the river costs four small bets and will generate a final showdown pot of 24 small bets. Consequently we would need to win this pot 1/6 of the time to justify staying in. Unless our opponent has a hand such as QJ or AQ, for example, then we typically have five outs in the form of the remaining aces and jacks. This equates to only a 1/8 chance of picking up the pot by making the draw which, usually, will not happen when the river card appears.

But we call a bet on the river anyway because at the turn we factored in the very realistic possibility that the opponent was bluffing, was betting a failed draw or was even (poorly) trying to protect his own pair of jacks with a lower kicker.

Too many players incorrectly fold because, apart from not wanting to ‘waste’ chips when prospects of winning the pot seem slim, they want to avoid the embarrassment of being seen ‘foolishly’ gifting chips to the winning hand.

Folding on the river in this example is a big mistake as it fails to adhere to the imperative conclusion to the play, and could well be a case of a pair of jacks donating a 23 bet pot to a hand like king high.

Folding on the river is obviously correct if a flush draw, for example, has missed, or if a raising war between two or three players indicates that we are beaten, but there are many situations in which folding is a terrible play. By all means we fold the many times when a miracle is needed, but if we are prepared to continue with a decent hand for one last bet it makes potentially profitable decisions easier to arrive at.

Making a stand on the river doesn’t require us to walk on water…

Good luck at the tables!

Angus Dunnington (AngusD at the tables)
32Red Poker Ambassador

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Fixed Limit: Know When to Hold’em, Know When to Fold’em… Part 1

That’s how the song goes, and it’s pretty good advice, of course. Many Fixed Limit players – particularly at the lower limit tables – see the ‘f’ of fixed as meaning ‘friendly’ or ‘fun’ because the betting structure affords them the opportunity to see more flops and subsequent betting stages with average or mediocre hands.

This can collectively lead to the strongest early hand being overtaken if several players go along for what they consider to be a cheap ride and one of them hits (the so-called ‘schooling’ scenario). However, chasing very long shots is generally not a good idea, especially against a small field. Unfortunately for too many players, ‘fun’ has a much more attractive ring to it than the key poker f-word: FOLD.

Folding is a fundamental part of every successful player’s armoury. In fact the first decision we are presented with (pre-flop) is whether or not to fold and, in many cases, that is exactly what we should do.

Playing or folding when the flop comes should be a fairly simple decision, but then comes the turn, which tends to be a critical point of the hand. Calling here – assuming our hand is strong – could subsequently mean calling on the river, which means throwing another two big bets (four small bets) into the pot. Consider this when weighing up the pros and cons, as a turn and river call after single pre-flop and flop raises (four small bets) would mean doubling the investment thus far.

But now that I have championed the cause of happy folding, don’t be afraid to call, either.. we’ll discuss this in Part 2.

Good luck at the tables!

Angus Dunnington (AngusD at the tables)
32Red Poker Ambassador

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Fixed Limit: The Big Blind

How best to handle our BB is always tricky, regardless of the format we’re playing, although some games are easier than others. In the case of a NL cash game, for example, the pre-flop raise can be big enough to make folding an easy decision, but in FL the betting cap means that subsequent pot odds are more significant in the BB. Consequently calling with non-premium hands can offer decent value. The trick in making the best of this awkward position is to be on the lookout for opportunities to turn our BB situation around to our advantage.

While I advocate getting used to folding what tend to end up as lost causes, it helps to recognise, for instance, the NL-style Button raisers so that we can try to turn the tables on them by calling and then putting them under pressure on the flop.

Incidentally we often read about ‘defending’ the blinds and so on but, from a psychological perspective, I think it’s preferable to approach this kind of situation, when faced in the BB with a pre-flop raise from the Button (and nobody else left in the hand), to see a call itself as an act of aggression. The point is not to be passive but to assume the initiative. And remember that taking such a stand costs us little.

Let’s say we are in the BB on a €0.20/0.40 short-handed FL table. It’s folded round to the Button, who seems to be have been making more than his fair share of raises, and does so again; the SB folds. The pot now stands at €0.70 (3.5 ‘small bets’), and we need to invest only one more small bet of €0.20 to see the flop. Thus we are getting odds of 3.5/1 to lock horns with the raiser. Notice that our actual starting hand is not a critical factor here, rather the attractive odds and the dynamics of the scenario.

Against this type of player – whose primary aim is to steal the blinds without a fight – we are simply looking for the kind of flop that misses even a generous raising range of starting hands, so something like 2c 5d 7h is ideal and thus ripe for the taking. As far as a Button holding such as Ac Ts is concerned, not only is this a useless flop, but of course we could have gone along for a cheap ride with anything. Apart from the fact that our random holding could well have connected here we might anyway have been calling with a better hand than AT.

As long as we have a solid table image we are in a perfect position to take the pot now with a decent sized bet, while there is also the more adventurous option of a check-raise (but remember checking offers a free card). Essentially we are using the psychology of the situation (based on what we have observed about this player thus far, as well as our perceived table image) to transform a random BB pre-flop call into a steal by – in this case – representing mediocre hole cards when the rags flop misses the raiser.

As with many things in life, this kind of play should be used selectively and not habitually, but it is the richness of poker that enables us to maximise profitable situations from the collective employment of such luxuries. As usual, experience helps, so don’t automatically call in the BB, but don’t automatically fold, either.

Good luck at the tables!

Angus Dunnington (AngusD at the tables)
32Red Poker Ambassador

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No Limit: It isn’t ‘the more the merrier’ for hands like AJ

Some people ‘like’ some hands more than others, and it is not unusual to see players grow attached to certain types of holding and be willing to gamble with them, while dismissing others. We often use AK and medium pairs in examples of what might happen with this or that starting hand, but in determining a range when looking for effective strategies – and in order to better understand other players – it pays to spend some time investigating how other hands fare.

Acquainting ourselves with the values of hole cards in relation to what the opposition might be holding is always an interesting exercise, as it can be surprising to learn how the odds of winning a pot at the showdown alter as circumstances change.

One striking feature of multi-table tournament play (also applicable to a 10-player Sit & Go) is the over-playing of holdings that feature an ace with a decent looking kicker. Let’s take AJ as an example. Put this in a simulation with most hands and it will be the favourite, and this seems enough for most would-be aggressive types to jump in all guns blazing even when there is no guarantee that the pot will be contested by the minimum number of players.

These same players, on the other hand, view suited connectors as too speculative. Putting together, for instance, As Jc and 8h 9h in a heads-up all the way to the showdown, sees the AJ a fairly decent favourite at 58.5% approximately. But now if we throw a third holding into the mix, in this example 5d 5c, we have a new set of expected winning percentages: As Jc at 36.1%, 8h 9h at 34.7% and 5d 5c certainly not too far behind at 29.2%. Clearly, prospects don’t look anywhere near as rosy for the player with the ace, who is now only marginally more likely to pick up the pot than the initial underdog 8h 9h, while the pair of fives is also in with a fighting chance. Things get even worse for the AJ with the addition of Ad 4d, the suited ace being another hand that is typically an attractive one to the ace worshippers. Of course the extra ace has a significant impact on proceedings, giving us 8h 9h at 34.9%, As Jc at 26.4%, 5d 5c at 25.6% and Ad 4d trailing behind (but still breathing) at 13.1%.

One valuable lesson here is that a holding featuring an ace becomes increasingly vulnerable with each additional opponent, which does appear to be stating the obvious, but is nevertheless ignored or insufficiently respected by those who think nothing of going all-in with AJ, for example, regardless of position or the number of players still to bet.

An understanding of the maths is indeed important if we are to approach NL with confidence, but a deep appreciation of the conditions of the pot being contested is imperative.

Good luck at the tables!

Angus Dunnington (AngusD at the tables)
32Red Poker Ambassador

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Tips for No Limit Games: Paying Big to Draw Short (part 1)

It is a nice feeling to call bets with a draw of some kind and to then pick up the pot when one of our hoped for cards conveniently appears on the river. Of course it is also a relief, as we will have invested a not insignificant amount of chips if we have been forced to pay for the draw at each betting round. On the flip side, when the river lets us down we’re left sitting in front of the monitor wearing an all too familiar expression of disappointment, no doubt facing the inevitable final bet from the opposition who, conversely, will be grinning from ear to ear.

And herein lies the problem of being too willing to pay for the chance to catch winning cards (particularly against a lone opponent), as we must react to missing the target either by letting the hand go or taking a stand with a bluff. Given the opposition’s betting thus far, our calling – rather than raising – and the size of the pot, it is unlikely that anything but a big bluff will succeed in inducing a fold, but this then risks adding to the damage we have already inflicted on our stack.

Anything can happen in poker – we might catch the right cards on the river over and over and pick up juicy pots, and we might also manage to scare off the enemy when we miss with bold bets, but in the long-run it is not good to find ourselves with missed draws and our money in the pot.

Many players make mistakes on both sides of the two-player chase scenario because they don’t properly factor in the odds. For example if we have two clubs as hole cards and the flop comes with another two, we will make the flush (by the river) approximately 35% of the time and should therefore consider this when faced with a bet.

We should also anticipate events on the turn should a club not arrive, as then we have only a 20% or so chance of catching. What tends to happen is that we make a poor value call (against a canny player) on the flop on such a draw, get no joy on the turn and then find we are faced with a bigger bet, in which case it is time to let go. If our original call was over-priced, then we have simply wasted money, and calling again compounds the problem.

For chasing draws in multi-way pots tune in next time for Part 2…

Good luck at the tables!

Angus Dunnington (AngusD at the tables)
32Red Poker Ambassador

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Multi-tabling: How much should we think?

Clearly we need to concentrate properly in order to play to our best ability. There’s an argument that multi-tablers can’t afford to put too much effort into each individual hand, especially when the most practical course is not obvious.  Allowing ourselves to get too creative with marginal holdings or to get drawn into raising wars without the best hands is potentially hazardous enough as it is, without the additional handicap of needing to spread our efforts across a few other tables at the same time. Trying to keep numerous plates spinning ‘perfectly’ tends to result in them all coming crashing to the floor.

Particularly on full (10-player) tables, the good, old-fashioned ABC strategy is a very reliable approach, especially when playing more than one table, but the growing popularity of short-handed play eventually brought with it a legacy of a more loose aggressive style that then manifested itself on 10-player tables. While this means we should expect to make more when we do play aggressively with our premium hands, we also need to keep an eye on those players who are stealing more than their fair share of pots – both pre-flop and with continuation bets. If we are using our time properly this shouldn’t be too difficult to pick up on, and executing the occasional re-steal or pushing these players off the pot will also serve to add an extra dimension to our game and not leave us too predictable.

Indeed time is the crucial factor. Taking up too many vital seconds being unjustifiably adventurous is simply a dangerous waste of our resources, but if we manage what we have sensibly it is surprising how much time we’ll have available for addressing the more manageable situations.

Furthermore, given that the more tables we play the less time we have to think, then it is important to get acquainted with the fundamentals of the strategy we intend to utilise before we sit down, including starting hand criteria and so on. And if, for example, there are plays we absolutely intend not to include in our repertoire, or habits that we have been trying to iron out of our game, then it is essential to adhere to our overall game plan. Success in this aspect of the game, remember, serves to shorten the route to the next plateau.

Good luck at the tables!

Angus Dunnington (AngusD at the tables)
32Red Poker Ambassador

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Want to tighten up your game? Try Fixed Limit

Every day we break little rules or do something we know isn’t quite right, whether it’s not always looking properly when crossing the road, stealing a quick call on the mobile while driving or playing too loose at the poker table. While the first two errors in judgement might have the most serious potential consequences, the poker sin presents us with problems we can so easily avoid.

Yet all of us seem to find it difficult to concentrate on the ‘tight’ part of the much sought after tight-aggressive strategy. By ‘concentrate’ I mean succeed in avoiding loose pre-flop play throughout a session, rather than adhering to the (golden) rules most of the time and allowing ourselves the luxury of indulging in weak and wasteful play when we feel like it. (Note that there is an important distinction to be made between deliberately changing gears occasionally to unsettle the opposition and make ourselves less predictable, and thoughtlessly joining in the fun with a weak holding just for the sake of it).

Online poker‘s fluency, convenience and anonymity are great attractions that have served to power the poker explosion over the last decade or so, but they also contribute to voluntary loose pre-flop play. So used to what amounts to more or less constant action, we don’t seem to be able to resist the temptation, even though we know that playing a patient, tight game will still allow us to get involved in more than enough interesting hands.

Unfortunately loose bets will, over time, have a cumulatively serious negative effect on our prospects – all the more frustrating when we knew we were making all these mistakes in the first place, over and over again. Such a liberal ‘strategy’ is of course compounded when multi-tabling.

This isn’t the first time I’ll return to one of poker’s fundamentals and, moreover, it won’t be the last. If you have a particular problem tightening up in No Limit, I suggest switching to Fixed Limit with a view to exorcising the demon. Without the prospect of catching someone out with our poor hand by striking lucky and getting all-in, the futile, over-optimistic nature of loose pre-flop play is highlighted and the message consequently hits home more readily than is the case in NL.

Good luck at the tables!

Angus Dunnington (AngusD at the 32Red Poker tables)
32Red Poker Ambassador

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No Limit Tournaments: Big Slick – Big Risk

A popular and rather simple NL tournament strategy is to use the all-in move to ‘bully’ more experienced players into laying down a pair of queens, for example, rather than risk their entire stack on a coin toss. Typically we see this done time and again with AK, so here’s a reminder of what trouble we can get ourselves into.

It can be great fun and, in turn, profitable, when these all-in gambles pay off but, ultimately, making big moves with not quite good enough hands pre-flop is an unnecessary risk. This realisation comes with experience (hopefully not too much), and the poker student then ponders the conundrum that is which hands hold up well in pre-flop all-in confrontations, and in which circumstances.

The big favourite AK is obviously a strong holding but, nevertheless, an over-rated one that can lead to ruin if poorly played. Perhaps the fact that this holding is considered so powerful it even comes with the name ‘Big Slick‘ gives players too much confidence – it has a reputation to uphold, and we tend to be too willing to fight for the cause.

A common mistake is to be so excited when we are dealt AK after seeing so many awful hands for too long that, by the time play comes round to us and an all-in bet has been called or (re)raised all-in by another player, we can’t resist the temptation (or don’t even try) to throw our hat in the ring, too. Clearly, when faced with this situation, it helps to invest some thought into what to do, as a bit of logical analysis should then help put matters in perspective. The key factor here is that two players are already in the pot so it won’t be a heads-up race – chances of winning the pot are immediately cut by the inclusion of the extra player.

If one of the other all-in hands is another AK then two of our cards have already gone, the middle holding already becomes stronger and we’re suddenly half hoping to get away with splitting the pot. And if someone wakes up with AA even the middle player’s rags would be twice as likely to pick up the pot as our AK, which might be a 10% chance at the most.

All things considered, calling all-in pre-flop against two players with AK is rarely worth the risk.

Good luck at the tables!

Angus Dunnington (AngusD at the 32Red tables)
32Red Poker Ambassador

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Limit Ring Games: Multiple Callers Part 2

When in possession of what looks like the strongest hand at the turn, do we prefer to take the pot there and then when everyone folds or, alternatively, is it better to have the pot pumped with more calls? Money in the bank, or a better than average chance at bigger pots? Much depends on how strong our hand is and how it can hold up against multiple challenges.

Let’s say that in our example in Part 1 (in a €1/2 FL game we bet the turn into a €14 pot against 6 players) we were 62% favourites after the turn. If over 100 identical hands everyone folded to our bet we would pick up 100 pots of €14. Alternatively, if everyone called and then – for the sake of argument – folded to our bet on the river when beaten, or we invested an average of 1.5 bets on the river when we lost (assuming we are either called or raised once), we would win 62 pots of €28 and in the other 38 hands we would lose an average of €5 (including the turn bet, remember).

So how do these compare? If we could take the pot every time on the river we would have a safe profit of £1400. With everyone calling, we would win €1736 (62x€28) and lose €190 (38x€5) for a fun-filled profit of €1546. In this case, then, coping with the ups and downs of the game would reward us with €146 more than the risk-free option!

This all serves to confirm the fact that in the long-term sound play generates profit regardless of bad beats and awkward, unorthodox play from the opposition that we might (incorrectly) prefer not to have to deal with. Many players find No Limit cash games intimidating but variance in Fixed Limit is an occupational hazard that we simply cannot avoid.

Not only must we come to terms with our strong hands being attacked from all quarters, but in situations such as the one examined above we should welcome the challenge and ride the storm. Fortune might occasionally favour the lucky but, ultimately, it rewards the brave.

Good luck at the tables!

Angus Dunnington (AngusD at the 32Red tables)
32Red Poker Ambassador

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Limit Ring Games: Multiple Callers Part 1

On a full limit table (particularly at the lower limits) it often seems that poor play is undeservedly rewarded while those who play correctly suffer too many bad beats. In the long-term the better players emerge well ahead of the gamblers, but here is a typical episode that can adversely affect the fortunes and attitude of an otherwise sound player. To keep the numbers simple let’s say we’re in the big blind in a €1/2 limit game holding Ad 8c, and we check after six players limp in (this is by no means unusual in a full ring game at these stakes). The flop comes As Tc 7h and, although this isn’t anything to get excited about we open the betting to see how the land lies. Everyone calls(!), making the pot €14, and the turn brings a welcome Ah. This has obviously helped us more than most so we open again (this time for €2) but – surprise, surprise! – the calling fest continues even here, pumping up the pot to a juicy €28. The river brings a 5, which looks harmless enough to prompt another bet, and this time the only caller is the button who, typically at this limit, has been happy to keep investing in the hand since seeing his hole cards consisted of a pair of fives (he could have raised at the end but might have been afraid of a bigger full house, or he might simply be clueless – the important factor is that the chips sailed across the screen in his direction, not ours). In being lucky enough to catch one of the remaining fives to make a full house this player has won a €32 pot.

We feel a bit unfortunate that we were overtaken on the river and that ‘our’ pot was stolen. But had the river brought a queen, for example, then the limper holding KJ would have filled his straight, while a 9 would have meant an early Christmas for the bingo fan on our left who – in low limit tradition – was going along for the ride with 68. In other words, although we were a decent favourite right after the turn, being overtaken is not as unlucky as it may seem in this kind of scenario. Nor can the mass calling on the turn be described as purely weak play on the chancers’ part (we’re concerned only with play from the turn onwards). With a small pot it would not be a good idea for the player with 68 to call on his own because only four cards in the deck could help him (not necessarily ‘save’ him, as he could be beaten already for all he knows), but putting €2 into a pot of €16 (including our opener) can soon look okay when further calls improve his odds. Which brings us to the button and his pair of fives – by the time the turn betting came to him he was at least more ‘justified’ in calling into a €26 pot than he would have been in early position throwing another €2 into a far less attractive pot of €16 for his long shot of two outs. This so-called ‘schooling’ scenario caused by multiple calling effectively improves each player’s pot odds to such an extent that even those calls that are essentially the result of poor decision making almost assume an air of respectability. Moreover, some plays are transformed from being ‘mistakes’ to good value bets, all courtesy of someone else calling, thus collectively rendering the hitherto correct play (throughout the course of the hand) of one or two other players much less effective. But this is simply a fact of life as far as full table fixed limit cash games go.

In Part 2 we’ll look at possible long-term results of this kind of scenario.

Good luck at the tables!

Angus Dunnington (AngusD at the 32Red tables)
32Red Poker Ambassador

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