32Red Poker Blog

I’ve had the idea of keeping a running notebook of my biggest mistakes from ‘live’ events. It’s sure to fill up quickly! I hope it will be a useful thing both for me, and for you, the readers, and I’ve love to hear your thoughts on the hands.

So much of poker is about being honest with yourself, and it’s acutally very easy to pinpoint a ton of things you could have done better, even after just a few hours live play. Here we go with the mistakes; they are in chronological order, not in order of severity!

1) Rendezvous Casino Brighton, £500 Freezeout, 11th October 2008.

I had a pretty tough table given that the field looked quite weak, and probably the toughest opponent at the table was Karl Mahrenlohz. I have never been quite able to work out his game, but it is obviously strong. He is a highly rated player, and I even wonder whether he is underrated. It was actually because of his strength, and because he is such a clear thinking player, that I chose him to pull a bluff on him. If someone is exploitable, it does not necessarily mean that they are weak. In this case, it was quite the opposite reason that I chose to pull a play that, to a thinking player, should look really strong, and make it very difficult to call without a super-strong hand. And the mistake? I’m gutted to say it, but I wimped out on the river, and didn’t make the follow through bet.

Blinds were 150/300, and Karl raised to 700 on the CO, and I defended the BB with Q9 offsuit. The great structure meant we were both very deep, with 80BB stacks. The flop came Qx4s3s, giving me the top pair. Karl bet 900, I called, and we saw a blank 5 on the turn. Karl bet 1,200, which was another fairly small bet. I was fairly sure that these smallish bets were for pot control reasons, and that his range was fairly wide. It did seem to suggest, however, that he probably did not have a super-strong hand like a set, as he might try to inflate the pot in that case.

It seeemed a perfect spot to try a rather unsusal move- of turning top pair into a bluff. It seems a fairly dubious move, but the logic behind it is often misunderstood. Many people would say, “but he could have nothing, or could be behind you with JJ or something,” and would argue that by trying to get him to pass hands that can beat our top pair, we are bluffing a very narrow range of hands. This is correct, but it is important to understand, that if I do have him beat, it is a void scenario. Those hands will pass to my river bet, but I would beat them anyway (and I think it is very unliekly he will 3-barrel air).

It is crucially important when you decide to bluff that you pinpoint the kind of hands you are trying to make pass. Here the hands were specifically AQ, KQ, QJ, aces and kings. It may seem like a pretty dubious bluff, but I thought I had the right type of player, and the right situation to worry him enough to make him pass. The plan was to raise to check-raise the turn to 3,200, and then to fire a big bluff on the river. A good, thinking player would reconstruct this pattern, along with my flop call, and find it very difficult to pull out a call.

The check-raise to 3,200 was called, the river a board-pairing 4, and somehow I found myself checking. Karl actually fired out a 4,000 bet, and I made what I am 95% sure was the right pass. (even some missed draws have showdown value, and there is no way he is value betting a weaker hand).

The really disappointing thing about the hand is not so much the failed bluff on the turn, but simply that I failed to follow through the plan I had made in my mind. Poker is a game where you just have to trust your instincts, so it really is disappointing to report that I managed to second guess myself into changing my plan. It’s difficult to say what it was, but I would say was a big part due to feeling tired on the day, and to second-guessing the logic of the bluff. It obviously was not the best river card to bluff (a J, ten, 7 or 6 would have been) but was definitely good enough that I should have continued my plan.

2) Rendezvous Casino Brighton, £500 Freezeout, Saturday 11th October

A new table now, and an opponent who was much less experienced. I was playing a stack of 25,000 and raised to 1,200 with KsQx. The small blind called, and seemed a fairly weak, cally-type player. The flop came Q93, all spades, giving me top pair and the 2nd nut flush draw. My opponent checked unusually quickly; I knew that this meant something, it was just difficult to say what.

However, it probably meant that he was at either end of the range, adn had either flopped nothing, or flopped a flush. This probably means that my rather large bet of 2,500 was probably wrong. This is an importnat type of hand. The extra insurance of the second nut draw means that I can make what I will call a balance play of a flop check- it disguises my hand, and balances both its reasonable strength, and the fact my opponent may have a really big hand. It is actually more suitable if you think your opponent may have a set, as this is the exact hand that he is going to check-raise you big with. My hand was strong in some ways, but was definitely not a spot where I would be happy to get it all in on the flop.

So, that was the first mistake, and now I’ll tell you that my opponent had in fact flopped a flush, holding J10 of spades. He let me off lightly, echoing my mistake with a flat-call. I think he has to try to get it in here; any hand that he can trap into betting when he checks on the turn will have to give him action on the flop, so I think this is a really bad trap.

The turn was the 6 of spades, giving me the lead. I decided to check behind; not knowing what his hand was, this is the default play. It both encourages him to bluff the river, and also will help by giving me far less credit when I value bet the end.

The river was a complete blank, and my opponent fired out 3,500 into the 8,800 pot. I made what would be normally a quick, default call (too thin to pass, but raising is too thin for value, and could lead me to getting re-rasie bluffed)and saw that he had flopped the jack high flush.

And the mistake? I acted far too quickly on the end. I really should not have made the defualt move, without thinking about the type of opponent. I could be sure that he would not re-raise as a bluff, and so only needed to judge whether it would more likely he had a lower flush and would pay me off, or had the ace-high flush. If he did have a lower flush, I think he probably would have made the mistake of calling, particuarly after the frustration of flopping it and seeing it semi-counterfeited. In fact, there is a case for making a big raise; I could have got even of 9,000 more from a suspicious player, and so maybe missed big value.

3) Thanet GUKPT, £1000 Main Event, 18th October 2008

I had quite a weak table to start in the 7-seat.; as is often the case, this involved most pots being limped into, often by multiple players. The 2-seat was the player limping into most pots, often with real junk, and I had been able to get a decent read on his betting patterns, as he had already been involved in some big hands. The main read involved the fact that he had actually flopped the nuts three times, and checked it each time, twice in fact then also checking the turn out of position.

With blinds of 75/150, he limped UTG, and I made it 700 on the CO. He was the sole caller, and this really did not narrow his range much at all. (Pot 1,550, my stack 8,000). The flop came 1098 rainbow, giving me top pair, top kicker on this connected board. He led out into me for 1,500. I was pretty sure he wasn’t the type to mix things up, and so this bet was pretty transparent. There was just no way he had a big hand after the previous three softplays, but at the same time I was pretty sure he wasn’t bluffing. Actually, across all his range from nuts to ouright bluff, it was pretty obvious he was in one specific part- the weak pair with straight draw. (Hands like Q10,J9,J8, and Q9 were the most likely contenders). It was just possible he had 98 for the bottom two pair, but I think he would be clueless enough to consider this a hand worthy of trapping. What was absolutely clear was that he was not stronger than this.

I think my mistake in the hand was that I really should have moved in here, as 3,050 would be a decent enough pot to pick up. The probelm was of course that I might not pick up the pot, and could well find myself sweating the 9 outs of Q9, or 13 outs of J8 for all my stack. Because I had position and a decent read on his range, I chose to flat-call, but I think now I should have moved in. It would have given me a shot of picking up 3,000 for free, or I could be in a more favorable spot if his hand included a ten.

My other reason for flat-calling was that of course it then gives you more options on the turn. The spot you hope for is of course that a blank comes, and now you can move in with much better equity, denying your opponent the odds to call (which admittedly he would have on the flop.) Now, a weak heart still doesn’t like to be called by j9 with one card to come, but you at least have the numbers in your favour.

I flat-called the flop bet, and the turn paired the 8 on the board. This is of course in some senses a good card for my ace-ten, and could well be a blank. Of course, if it is not a blank, it has just given him trips, and is a disaster card. Hands like J8, 87 and Q8 were definitely well weighted in his range. My big regret in the hand is that when he checked, it was quite quickly. I just maybe should have picked up on this, and chosen to check behind.

So, what happened? I fell for the check, and bet a pot controlling 1,600. There was some long pause before he then moved-in, but it looked much more like Hollywooding than indecison with jack-ten. His move in would cost me 4,950 more, and I gave it some thought before making the inevitable pass. Against this player, it was pass I feel almost 100% confident about, but of course there is the lingering worry that he (accidentally) pulled a great semi-bluff.

Given the hand again, I would most definitely make the same pass on the turn to his all-in, but of course this is one of two worries. I probably should have checked the turn behind (difficult, as it of course gives a free card to q10,J10,Q9,J9,j8,97 and 77 amongst others), and then a blank river would make it easy to use his bet size to get the pass/call decision right, or to find the right value bet if he checked. The other element of the hand for me is whether I should bite the bullet and move in on the flop, and I’d love to hear your thoughts about this. I know that part of my game is that I maybe am a little too reluctant to gamble. Should I just not worry and be prepared to takea 60-40% early in the comp? Let me know your thoughts.

4) Thanet GUKPT, £100 Main Event, 18th October, 2008

I’m going to log this hand because it just didn’t feel right, but I find it difficult to know what exactly I would have done differently. I just know I should have done something different, as it was disappoiting to get so little value from a big hand.

With blinds of 25/50, I completed the small blind with Js4s, and we were five way to the flop. All the other players were non-tricky, and two in this hand fairly big calling stations. The flop came a wonderful 7s6s5s, giving me a flush, and open ended straight flush draw.

First to speak, I bet out 200, called by one recreational player who seemed to favour the call button much more than the fold. The turn and river came the blanks which were an offsuit queen and an offsuit deuce (final board qx7s6s5s2x), and I bet first 400, and then 1,100. There seemed to be the best value making this big value bet on the end, as I figured that there was little difference between the range of hands that the player would pass for 600 and pass for 1,100. The player actually made a pretty quick pass on the end, a hand which looked then like the busted nut flush draw.

So, a few questions to myself, and I’d love to hear your thoughts on how to play a big hand first to speak into so many limpers.

- Should I have played for a check-raise, which could gain extra value if a bet is made and called by one or two other players? My usual style is to bet out- I guess it can itself gain extra value if my bet is called in one or two spots before being raised.

- If it is right to bet, should I be making much larger bets on the flop and turn? This is something I’m wondering about more and more, as the average live players seem to be farily unaware of how much is in the pot.

-Should I check the river, in case he wants to bluff the busted draw? I think I’m probably right to bet, as it’s so likely he’ll pay off a pot sized bet with any piece. I think the check is only right against an aggressive player who will not only bluff a busted, but value bet a hand like KsQx.

5) Thanet GUKPT, £1000 Main Event, 18th October, 2008

This hand is another example of a cowardly missed bluff. What is wrong with me?! Here’s the hand:

Blinds are 100/200, and I complete the small blind with king-queen. The big blind is Liv Boveree, and she checks. The kind of a player she is is key to why it was a mistake not to bluff- she is a very good player, but much more towards the conserative end of the spectrum than the reckless. Crucially, she is not the type to call down light over multiple streets.

The flop comes JJ8, and I check. This is my preferred option here, as basically you want to be the one with the option of the re-raise, rather than facing it. Liv made a rather nervous looking bet of 300, and called my re-raise to 800. To simplify slightly, it was now a certainity that she had one of two hands- an eight, or 109 for the straight draw.

Here is what happened, followed by what should have happened! The turn came a 5, and I checked. She bet 600, which was a slight surprise, and I called, knowing that I was either ahead, or drawing to six outs. The river came a 9 (for a board of JJ859), we checked it down, and she took the pot down with 85.

Knowing that she had either an 8 or a straight draw, I should of course have followed with another bluff on the turn. A two-thirds pot bet of 1,400 would have done; she is too good to call with a straight draw on a paired board.

Even after my missed bluff on the turn, I should have bluffed the river. This is much more thin, but after the turn action I think I can conclude it much more likely that she has an 8 than a straight draw. I could either just turn on the heat with a pot bet of 2,000 or represent 109,for a straight draw turning into a pair, and I think the best line is to do this with a smallish 800 bet.

6) Thanet GUPKT, £1000 Main Event, 18th October 2008

Once again Liv Boveree benefited from my poor play, in a pot where I should have used my image of her to make a better decision on the turn:

(Blinds 150/300)

I raise to 800 from the SB with Jd8d, she calls from the BB.

(Flop KcKhJc, I pair the jack)

I check, she bets 1,100, I call

(Turn 7h, a blank)

I check, she bets 2,500, I call

(River 2d)

Check-check, she shows KQo for a winning three of a kind.

I think I should have saved 2,500 from a poor turn call in this pot. Once again, I am guilty of making the standard play, and not asking myself “would this type of opponent really bluff in this spot?” The problem in the hand is that when she bets flop and turn, one of two unlikely things has happened. Liv is a good but solid player, and when she bets the turn, she has either made an unlikely second bluff with nothing, or she has a king for three of a kind. If she does have the king, she has made the unusual play of betting the flop after hitting such a strong hand.

Her flop play is of course correct, as my check after the pre-flop raise probably means that I have a hand that I want to call with, but don’t want to bet. In fact, it screams that I have a jack. However, most players would not make this play on the flop, as they incorrectly believe that the right strategy with their hand is to slow-play. I really should have read that Liv was far more likely to be firing two barrels with a king or AJ than she was with no hand. The situation on the flop is an interesting journey into the psychology of her play, but it is one I should have got right. I may well be wrong, but I would say Liv is betting here with three kings because she is solid, and wants to protect her hand, but good enough to realsie that this is the best way to get value from it. The element of her game that maybe over worries about protecting hands is proved her check behind on the end. I really should have picked up long before this hand that she plays with this style, and should have found a pass on the turn.

7) Thanet GUKPT, £1000 Main Event, Final Hand

I had brought bacsk 26250 for the second day, and on this hand right at the end of the first level, found myself blinded down to 18,700. The hand was interesting both in two ways; firstly reading table dynamics, and secondly the challenge of trying to read someone’s else style of play at this stage of the tournament, where the re-raise all-in becomes a real feature.

My eliminator was Simon “Aces” Trumper, a really strong player, but one whose style was possible to get some insight to. This was partly because his attitude seemed to be very similar to mine, that he would go out of his way to avoid the 50-50% gamble for all his chips. He had been involved in two of the three previous pots, and both would yield a big clue for this pot, where I ultimately busted out.

Firstly, an interesting hand had created both alot of discussion and good banter, with Mike Ellis eventually calling the clock on himself! Simon “Aces” Trumper held pocket tens in the small blind, and had decided not to move in before the flop to Ellis’ hijack raise, even though the stack size would have fitted perfectly for the re-shove. In stead, he moved in OOP when the flop produced no ace or king. It isa move that I really like as it does alot to reduce the variance of tournament play (Ellis incidentally folded pocket nines with seconds left on the clock, a well considered read confirming his class)

Two hands later, Trumper had then raised UTG +1, been called by Ellis on the button, and had the small blind shove all-in. He had some odds to make the call for a big pot, but eventually chose to pass.

The reason I have given details of these two hands is that they not only give an insight into his style, but change the dynamics of what may happen in subsequent hands. In particular, the last hand can be of great importance to the current one, and a question you should always ask yourself when a player is involved in two consecutive hands is “What happened to this player in the last hand, and how is it likely to affect this one?”

Proceeding to the hand in question, “Aces” limped UTG for 1,600, and an unknown player limped to the right of me in the CO. With blinds of 800/1,600 (100), this meant there was the pot already contained 6,500 chips, a decent fraction of my 18,700 stack. In this scenario, I will often be willing to push. My ace-ten is not a hand I love in this spot (as if you get caught, you will never have the two live cards that, say, 98 suited may offer), but it was deinitely better for the push than a random hand.

My decision would of course hinge on the read I had on the hands of the two players to my right. With the guy on my right limping behind, he was surely just looking for the chance to play a cheap pot, and so I would need a good think about Trumper. TWo things seemed to be in my favour; he did not like to gamble pre-flop, but principally he had been forced to lay down after raising in the previous pot. This meant that, if he had found a super-strong hand on this hand, he would surely have raised. This is a feature of every player’s game, whatever their style, and combines the two emotions of “well, I was frustrated that they re-raised last time, but now let’s hope that they do it again.”

As I was able to eliminate a big pair from Trumper’s range, it seemed ripe for the move in. Within the next thirty seconds, however, he had quickly shipped it, turned ace king, and I was getting on my bike back to Birmingham. (Of course the board had also come out without a ten, but those days are long gone!)

I have thought alot about the hand , and realised my mistake. My thinking was right on one level, but I failed to consider a whole second level of thought. It was fair to elimiate aces, kings and queens from Trumper’s range, but having done that, I should have thought “Well, what is it that Simon is limping with if it is not one of those hands?”

Simon Trumper is very skilled, but also very solid. This is important to know, as it would probably mean that the frustration of being re-raised out of the previous pot might make him now fold some hands that he might sometimes limp with. I had taken off the top off his range before moving in, but had not stopped to realise that I should maybe taken off the bottom as well.

I do not know whether I realistically could have guessed this at the time, but there was a big clue that he might have in fact have exactly ace-king. I should have thought of it like this- Simon has shown that he likes to avoid 50-50% races, and may be frustrated about being re-raised off the previous hand. Therefore, he could well be pulling a really strong move, which is the limp with ace-king in early position, intending then to re-raise all in, if there is a raiser. Now, you can be the on forcing the decision onto 1010 and 99, rather than facing that decision with ace-king yourself.

There probably could have been other weaker hands he might have limped with, but I should at least given the danger hand of ace-king the biggest weighting in his range.

It was a big lesson for me that I shouldn’t make any decisions based on a positive factor, before I have taken the time to consider whether there are any more worrying factors to build in.

wp “Aces,” gg nh fu wong to me.

£100 Rebuy tournament,Birmingham Broadway, 20th October 2008

One day on, this hand is still tilllting me hard. I had an opportunity to make a sick laydown, but of course politely refused it. The really interesting thing about the hand, though, is about table talk- I’ll come to that in a bit.

I had been lucky and was playing the big stack, and a Scouse player raised the 50/100 blinds to 625 after one player limped in. I called with AsQs on the button, as did the EP limper, creating a pot of 2025. The Scouser was a crafty agressive player, buthis one fault seemed to be that after lots of tricky aggresion he would slowplay his big hands, which must be a mistake; he was playing a stack of circa 7,500.

The flop came Ac3c3x, giving me top pair with the 2nd best kicker. Check from the EP limper, the Scouser checked, and I made a small bet of 500. The early position player went all in for 1,900, which I was ready to snap. The Liverpudlian, however, quickly flat-called the 1,900 all-in of the third player.

This of course was cause for thought, especially because the speed of it did not look like a pocket pair under the ace. The play looked really strong. The one thing that bothered me is that this would not be the way for a typical live player to play ace-king (although it would be a good play, as this flop is so strong for ace-king that it is a contender for a slow-play). If he did not have AK, his range to beat me was very narrow!However, it just felt that he was really strong, and I nearly did the right thing by passing. Of course some little noise went off in my head about a club flush draw, and I made the call.

The turn came an eight of hearts,a complete blank, and the Scouser now checked. He was playing 5,600 behind. The check was good, and gave mean opportunity tobet a small 1,600, both to get value from my hand if I was ahead, and also to be able to escape from the hand if he re-raised.

As soon as I bet 1,600, the Scouser went all-in for the last 4,000. It felt like an easy pass. There was just no way he was playing a hand like AQ,AJ or A10 in this way, and the side pot meant I could be sure he was not playing a flush draw aggressively.

I was near enough sure I would pass, but said to the guy “You must have ace-king?” The reply came “I’ll give you a £100 side bet I don’t have ace-king mate.” I was then able to pass in a flash, and could not believe someone would think this was a clever thing to say with a super-strong hand. I presumed he would flip two aces, but actually had ace-three for a flopped house. (The river comically came the case ace, which would have split the pot. Sick.)

So,I’m gutted with myself for not making a good pass on the flop, but the interesting thing for me is the transparency of the table talk. I normally don’t say too much on the big decisions, but the two times I have, my opponent’s answer had been as kind as a sudden gust of wind revealing his cards. The big lesson for me is a note to self- on any big decision, ask them a question or two; it can do no harm, and might produce a gift.

9) Irish Winter Festival, 1,500 Euro Main Event, Saturday 25th October

Dublin was such a disappointing event, as it is difficult to say really what went wrong. There were definitely a couple of interesting spots, that I maybe could have played better to make a difference in my chip count:

My starting table was weak, especially after the early departure of Julian Thew. I raised up the 8c6c to 750, and a weak Irish player called in the small blind. He was playing a fairly standard game, and I had a pretty reliable tell for when he was weak, as he had pulled a big bluff about a half hour before, and pratically written it all over his face.

(Pot 1,800) The flop came Ad8h4c, giving me the middle pair, and backdraw flush draw. The Irish player thought for a few seconds (hard to draw too much from, but I thought it more likely he had something), and decided to check.

My mistake was that I checked behind here, and should have made what is a fairly standard continuation bet. There are so few hands genuine hands that he will re-raise with here, and I do not need to worry about him making a play with a draw. The most likely hands, like AQ,AJ and 98, are the exact hands that he will flat call with, and then let me slow down.

In stead, I let the situation become a whole lot more confusing. The board rolled out A86510, and I was faced with bets on 1,200 on the turn and river. I could not pass on the turn, but made what I am 95% sure is the correct pass on the river. Once again, however, there is just a slight chance that an unlikely bluff meant that I made a horrific pass.

It is important for me to think WHY I made the mistake I did in this hand. I think it has to do with not making the transistion well between onlien cash games and live tournaments, where the standard is much weaker. In online cash games, a continuation bet is more risky with a hand like middle pair, as there is a decent chance that your opponent will try to take you off the hand with nothing. Realistically, this is just not the case against avergae opponents in these live tournaments, and this really was a horrible check.

10) Irish Winter Festival, 1,500 Euro Main Event, Saturday 25th October

When you are trying to choose the right value bet with a big hand and your opponent calls within two seconds, you have almost certainly made a mistake. This is what happened in this hand:

(Blinds 50/100)

I raise to 250 in MP with 8d6d, call from the small blind.

(Flop AdKs7d, giving me a low flush draw)

I bet 350, my opponent calls.

(Turn 2d, giving me a low flush)

My opponent bets 1,000, I call

(River 6h, a great blank card) (Pot is 3,300)

My opponent checks, I bet 2,000. He calls, and shows AQ, no diamond.

This was a strange way for my opponent to play his ace-queen. It was confusing for meon the turn, as I had reason to worry that he might have a flush, but far less confusing when he checked on the river. Now, it looked very much like he had a two pair hand (most logically a turned two pair), or a hand like AQ, with the queen of diamonds. He actually had a different hand, but either way it was pretty clear that I was value betting with the best hand.

I actually thought that 2,000 was a big value bet, but this hand is a good example of a theme that seems to come up again and agian against mediocre live players. When you are fairly sure that you have the best hand, and your opponent has a half decent hand, I just wonder whether the best line is to make a really big value bet. There are just so many opponents that can’t get away from any decent hand, and especially when they have put so many chips into the pot. The other crucial factor here is that my opponent has created a confusing situation for himself by betting the turn so strongly, and then checking the end. (It maybe is not even a horrible call for him, as it is possible that I c-bet the flop with air, and picked up the nut flush draw on the turn). When a weak opponent is confused, they are far more likely to press the call button.

Given the scenario again, I think I would make a value bet of 3,000,but I just wonder whether a bet as big as 5,000 or even 6,000 might show a profit in the long run.

This topic of value betting with the best hand is one that I will try to keep running in this column, and it will be interesting after a period of time to look back at a collection of these type of hands.

11) Irish Winter Festival, 1,500 Euro Main Event, Saturday 25th October

This hand is an example of making the wrong choice with the best hand on the river, when you are faced with the choice of value betting your hand, or turning it into a bluff catcher. My opponent was a young German player, and had the most game of anyone at a weak table. He was without doubt a product of internet generation, as he had the strong aggressive game to show for it. However, he was probably a relative newcomer, as his raw talent had holes in it, including the tendency to construct some pretty bad bluffs. Here is the pot where I should have given him the opportunity to make another:

He raises to 300 from the EP, I call with KQo in the BB.

(Flop Ks10d3c, giving me top pair) Check-check

(Turn 9c, for a heavy drawing board with two clubs) I bet 500- he makes a very quick call

(River 5h, a great blank card) I value bet 1,000- he makes a very quick pass

This decision of whether to value bet or bluff catch is one that you will be faced with time and time again. On a board of K109xx, I am far more likely to choose the value bet than on K10xxx. This is because my opponent’s turn call is more likely to be with a pair and gutshot, a hand that he will just check behind with showdown value.

I think the reason behind too many of my mistakes at the moment is that I am making the standard internet play, when the live environment offers so many more clues. The big clue here my the young German’s overly quick call on the turn, which was a big indication of a drawing hand. The scenario was actually perfect for making a trap check, and I am gutted to have misread the situation.

12) 888 UK Poker Open, £3000 TV Crapshoot

This really was the kind of day where it felt like I had little chance to make a mark on the scoreboard, partly due to the shocking structure of these events. However, it is exactly on this kind of day that itis important ot try to get every little edge right. Here with go with a couple of ones I should have got better today:

With blinds of 2000/4000, and a 100,000 starting stack, I raise to 10,000 with the 7s6s on the button. The big blind, an Austrian player who had played a tight solid game, made the call. Here is how the pot unfolded:

Flop Js3d2s, (giving me the flush draw) check-check

Turn 7s (givng me the second pair and a flush draw) The Austrian bet a confident looking 9,000, and I called.

River 9s (giving me the flush, pot stands at 40,000) The Austrian made an unusally quick check. I bet 18,000, he called and showed a rivered set of nines(!)

Of course it was a real disappointment to only take 9 big blinds in a pot where the river produced a card much better than I had even realised. I’ll try to tackle the issue of what I should have done in two seperate parts, firstly ignoring the fact that the ultra-quick check definitely provided some kind of clue.

The most simple way of building a bigger pot is of course to make the more usual play of betting my flush draw on the flop, or re-raising the turn when I pick up a pair as well. The reason on the turn was more simple- I have good showdown value and very few hands I can raise him off- but the flop is more debatable. The reason for betting a small flush draw on the flop is much more to take it down there than it is to build a pot. The reason I didn’t do this was that I thought this player was simple enough to let me take it off him on the turn and river. Checking behind on the flop of course also disguises your hand very well, if you do hit the flush.

So should I bet 36k(nearly the pot) on the end, rather than the 18k I bet? The answer is of largely obvious- I should do if there is more than better than half of the chance of getting a call than there is for 36k. So, what hands can call for 18k, but can’t for 36k? Here’s a rough estimation of the hands in either group

18k- A set, any two pair (J9,97,J7 the only realistic ones), hands with a jack (AJ,KJ,QJ,J10), 50% chance for A9,98,109, 87 and 76.

36k- A set, and any two pair, and possibly ace-jack.

There probably are more than double the number of hands in the 18k group, so without any another information, I think my value bet of 18k probably was right here.

However, should the extra information of the bizarrely quick check have given me a reason to change my evaluation. This is the area of my game that I need to improve- not just picking up on physical signs at the table, but correctly reading what they mean. The thing I should have thought about more from the quick check was that something had happened with that 9 of spades. As much as a conclusion like that he has rivered a set or a flush is explained by the quick check, it does not fit well with the simple fact that he has checked. To be honest, the check with the set of nines is bizarre and probably wrong (he should bet to get value from all the hands he beats), but should I have had read his hand for exactly what it was? I would say it was neither a scared check or a trap check, but a wierd combination of the two.

I just wonder that, just like with Simon Trumper’s ace-king last week, I should have worked out the kind of middling hand that would explain the strange move. Here,the quick check seemed unlikely with a rivered flush, but unlikely also with a hand like AJ, so maybe I should have been able to read that 9 of spades had read him in this more unpredictable way. Let’s have another look at some figures, and see what hands might produce this reaction on the river, and whether they would call either value bet:

A flush (calls for 18k and 36k, and of course almost definitely beats me!)

A set of nines- (calls for both)

Two pair (J9 or 97)- Calls for 18k, and 80% sure he calls for 36k

A9,98 or 87 (hands he bluffed with on the turn)- Calls 80% for 18k, not for 36k

So, if I can be sure that the check promises that the 9s has specifically hits his hand, it looks like I shouldbe firing a bigger value bet. This of course depends on the likelyhood that he has checked a flush, as I lose to 95%+ of his flushes. It would seem there is a complication that he check-raises with a flush, but this does acutally not matter- as long as I am sure I am passing to a back raise even after my 18k bet.

There really are three hands (99,J9 and 97) that I’m focusing my reason on to potenitally bet 36k. There are 28 combinations of a flush, but of course more than one combination for each of the 99,J9 and 97 hands. There are 3 for the 99, nine for 97 and nine for J9, making a total of 21. I’m going to weight likelyhoods by making it twice as likely that he has made this quick check with the hands with a nine, making a total of 42.

To look at the other hands (A9,98 and 87), there are 12 combinations of these hands, and I’m actually going to weight them as 1/2 as likely as the flush, to call it 6 combinations, for a total of 12.

I won’t do this too often, but here is just a little bit of maths to work out my +EV from both bets.

If I bet 18k

I gain 80% of 18k (14.4k) from 12 combinations of (A9,98,87), for 172.8k

I gain 18k from 42 combinations of (99,97,J9), for 756k

I lose 18k to 28 combinations of a flush, for -504k

This makes an equity of 324.8k

If I bet 36k

I gain 36k from 6 sets of nines, for 108k

I gain 80% of 36k (28.8k) from 36 lots of (J9,97) 916.8k

I lose 36k to 24 combinations of a flush, for -844k

Making an equity of 180.8k

Interesting stuff, the numbers do say that 18k was the right value bet.I know this maths is very rudimentary, and of course is not the whole answer, but it’sn interesting sometimes to do a little bit of number crunching like this.

Of course, the perfect poker game wouldn’t need maths at all. If I could know that he had hit the nine for a set or two pair, and would not do that with a flush, I could of course make the much bigger value bet. This is the goal I want to achieve, rather than these complicated numbers, but it’s interesting just sometimes to have a look.

13) £500 Star City tournament, 1st Novmeber 2008, 8th place finish

This tournament ended with an 8th place finish after two days’ poker, giving me my longest run for a while. This of course means that there is a longer list of mistakes than usual: Here we go:

One of the common themes of the tournament was that I seemedto get my value betting wrong when I did hit a big hand. Here are the examples when I was disappointed with what I collected when I made a big hand:

A) Blinds 25/50, 1st blind level

I held 10c8c in the big blind. An avergae tight player made it 350 UTG+1, and I made the call, along with UTG player and one mid position player.

(Pot 1425, Flop jc9×7x, giving me the nut straight!)

I checked, the initial raiser bet 400, and I check raised to 1,100. Both other players got out of the way, and he made the call.

(Pot 3625, turn KcJc9×7x, giving me also a flush draw)

I bet 1,900 and my opponent passed.

I think on this action board, I should be leading out into the betting to try nto squeeze the UTG player. With only a 10,000 starting stack, it does not need to be too big, but a bet of about 700 might have been best.

B) Second day, blinds 2,000/4,000 (400),

My stack was circa 120k, and I was in the big blind with 10d2c. A player called Graham Lamb made the call in mid position, the Mad Turk made up the small blind, and I checked. This player Graham Lamb was a nemesis for all of the second day. He eventually knocked me out, and about half of my interesting pots on the Sunday directly involved him! Looking back, he really did own me alot of the time, passing to my value bets, and twice calling my bluffs. He did not seem a great player and seemed to play an exploitable style, but at the same time got alot of things right. He was limping too much into pots, with the predictbale range of hands (small pairs, suited rag aces, suited and non-suited connectors), but it was a move that gained him far more chips than it cost him. Here is how the pot played out:

(Flop 9d7c7d, pot 14,800)

I bet out 6k with air, as he was bad enough to pass if he was not interested in the flop. He made the call, the Turk passed, and I was ready to give up on the pot most of the time.

(Pot 26,800)

The turn came the 6 of diamonds (check-check), and the river the eight of diamonds for a board of 9d8d7c7c6d Yes, this gave me a straight flush! I bet out for 20,000, he had a long dwell, and passed.

What did I put him on? It was difficult to say. The one hand he could not have was three sevens (he definitely bets on the turn). He could, however, have-

97 or 76 for a flopped or turned house

86 for a flopped straight draw, now a pair of eights

98 or 96 for a pair of nines

109 or J10 for a straight

An underpair to the flop, (55 for a straight)

This is actually a massively complicated spot, with so many hands in his range. To get the value bet right, I think I have to think, what is the chance he has a diamond? His turn check denies three sevens,and so he can only have a diamond if he has a pair of nines and his other card is a diamond, a diamond as part of an underpair, or as the jack in jack-ten. Basically, so many of his hands wrap around the flop that he is actually very unlikely to hold a diamond in his hand. Another big question is, will he re-raise with a house, and will he re-raise with the 5 of diamonds for the lower straight flush? I think he probably doesn;t re-raise any bet with a house, and raises 10k but not 20k with the five of diamonds.

Let’s have a look at what he will call with for the differing amounts:

10k- J10 or 109 for the straight, any diamond, 97 or 76(house), 86 (pair of eights), A9,K9,Q9,J9 (pair of nines), an underpair with a diamond.

20k- 97 or 76 (house), any pair of nines with a diamond (one quarter of A9, K9, Q9, J9), J10 and 109 half of the time,

40k- 97 or 76 (house), the five of diamonds, the Ad half of the time.

This hand is actually far more complicated than I had thought, but it would seem that 10k actually gets called more than twice as much as 20k does, and that this therefore might have been the right bet. Of course, it may just induce a bluff, or a value raise from a house or better. It didn’t seem it at the time, but I have found a mistake in value betting again here.

c) Second Day, Blinds 2000-4000 (400)

We were on the bubble, and I had been allowed to get away with daylight robbery, having raised the last four pots. I picked up 77, and made another gay raise to 9,000. Graham Lamb decided to stand up to me, but bizarrely by raising to just 16k. I of course could not pass, and elected to call.

(Pot 40,800, flop Q107 rainbow, giving me the bottom set. I had 140k behind)

It was a beautiful flop, and I knew I could get everything in against AA, KK and AQ. I led out for 12,000, and he made it 25k. To call would leave me 115k behind, and so I decided to slow play further. To be honest, I was very unsure what he had. It was very possible he had air, of course possible but not releveant that he could have a set, and possible he had a hand like JJor A10. What this small re-raise did was to make it less likely that he had ace-king or a pair lower than the ten. The turn came the worst possible card:

(Turn jack for QJ107 rainbow, pot 90,800, my stack 115k.)

The turn was the worst possible card, mainly because it would slow the action, but also because I had cause to worry slightly about JJ and AK, which had just outdrawn me. The all-important question to determine what I should do here was this- did I want to give myself any chance of possibly mucking the hand? If he bet 45k and then 70k, could I pass for the 70k on the end? I think I almost definitely could, unless the board paired. Checking would of course give a free card to a king or ace, and so I think I should have bet something like 35k, and be prepared to go bust.

I checked, the river came a blank five, and I value bet 35k into 90k. He dwelt up, signalling that he did have something, but made the pass.

It’s another difficult pot, but I think I made two mistakes. I think my lead out on the flop should be just a little bigger, but not too big to risk that he might pass. One of the most likely scenarios is that he is going to re-raise it as a bluff. Having made that mistake, I think I should have been willing to go broke on the turn, and made a bet to protect/get value from my hand.

D) Second Day, Blinds 2000-4000 (400)

Unbelievably, this was another pot against the same player, and the same situation with me in the big blind and the Mad Turk making up the small. I had Kd10d, and decided to check my option, leading to another pot of 14,800.

(Flop Qh10h7h, and the action is check round)

(Turn 6c, for a board of Qh10h7h6c, I bet 9k, and Lamb calls. Pot now 32,800)

(River 10d, for Qh10h10d7d6c, I have trip tens. I bet 20k, and he passes)

It is a spot where basically I wonder whether my value bet should be slightly smaller. He was quite clearly playing to the strength of his hand, and was probably more liekly to call 15k than a much bigger looking 20k.

Let’s have a look at his range after his turn call

97,87,96,86 (weighting 100%)- These hands, to give him a pair and gutshot, and possible flush draw, seemed the most likely.

J10,A10,109,108 (weighting 50%)- These hands are of course less likely as they include the case ten, and I have weighted smaller as he may well have bet the flop with them.

55,44,33,22 (weighting 60%)- These hands would have to include a heart.

Flopped flush (weighting 30%) I think he would have raised this hand by the turn.

A queen, or a flopped two pair or set, or a turned (weighting 20%) -He was too simple a player not to bet these hands on the flop, or raise on the turn.

It really felt at the time that I was aiming my value bet at the low pair hands (86,76,97 or 96), and my analysis bears this out. Although a 35k on the internet might prompt a hero call, this is definitely not right here. I really that think against this player, 15k is more likely to be called than 20k, and so that is what I should have bet.

14) Star City £500 tournament, 2nd November

Of all the mistakes in this column, this is the kind that I am gutted to report, and must try hardest to eliminate.

Blinds were 2000-4000(400), and I was in the BB with 9c8c. The button raised to 12k, and I made the call (pot is 29,200)

The flop came 864 rainbow, giving me the top pair. I checked, and the button bet 8k. It was a lady I had not seemed before, who seemed a good, but fairly standard player. This small bet fitted well with a set or aces, not at all with any other over pair, pretty well with ace-high, and too very well with 87,76,65 or 54, the pair+gutshot hands.

Basically, I had an easy re-raise, but failed to do so, and deserved the ace that came on the turn. She bet 15k, I passed and she showed an ace. The kind of poker from me not to be proud of.

15) £500 Star City tournament, 2 failed bluffs

The same player who three times passed to my value bets, caught me bluffing twice. Here are the pots;both times I have raised to 11k from EP, and he has called on the button,making a pot going to the flop of 30,800.

A) (I have 76o, flop AhQh9x, check-check.

(turn king of hearts, for AhQh9cKh, check-check)

(River Qd, for AhKhQhQd9c, I bet 15k, he looks unhappy but calls with A2).

I think it would be wrong to not bet here, as there are so many hands where he has to concede to my only chance of winning the pot. Maybe 12k is better than 15k, as it folds out the same hands? Maybe I should make a 10k turn bet, and 20K on the river. That folds out any king, and I think gives me a 70% of betting 30k to win 40k against his rag aces. And given his tendency to seem to like to call medium river bets but not big ones with marginal hands, maybe I should bet 30k on the end?

B) (I have 106, off, flop Ks5s4c, I bet 15k, he calls. Pot 60,800.)

(Turn 3s, for K543sss, check-check)

(River Qs, for KQ543ssss, I bet 18k, he quickly calls, and shows 75off, no spade).

This really was a horrible spot, to be caught by a hand I assumed he could not call with on this board, the 4th pair with no spade. I don’t want to take too much away from his call, as it was of course a great call, but I would say it was made to a large part out of frustration of the river bets that he had passed before.

I definitely think I should be bluffing the end here, as I have no other way to win and I suspect he is very weak,but I wonder if there are better ways to do it. I think the best way is to throw out a small 13k “license to bluff” bet on the turn, which will then set up a good spot to bet 22k on the river. This kind of bluffing really takes advantage of the fact that many live players are not aware of the size of the pot, and specifically often underestimate the size of the pot. This means that bets are far smaller relative to the pot than you see online, and you can get away with far smaller bluffs.

Given I do not bet the turn, I just wonder whether 25k is better than 18k on the end, as it may fold out all of his one pair hands.

I think the key learning point to this hand is the way the history will influence the other player. Twice he has folded to river bets before, and not known whether he was right. I think this means that I should not be firing a bad one-off bluff on the river, as it just gives too much cause for suspicion. Both times, even a very small bet on the turn might have helped my cause.

16) Star City £500 tournament, exit hand

I am still gutted about my exit hand. Not only was it once again at the hands of my nemesis Mr Lamb, but it was a hand I thought a long time about passing, and just had a bad feeling about. It’s difficult to say, therefore, why I did call, and I just really hope it was not to do with being owned a couple of times already in the day by this opponent, and not wanting to make a massive laydown against him. The hand was basically an overpair vs set situation, but here it is in full.

I am playing 165k UTG, with blinds of 2k-4k (400) early on the final table. The previous hand, I have raised to 11k, and laid down to Jon Kalmar’s re-raise. I now pick up KK, and Mr Lamb is on the big blind. I make the same raise to 11k, hoping to look weak. On reflection, this is the only certain mistake. The fact that I have got re-raised in the previous hand with the same opening bet actually does not make me look weaker this time- in fact, I see the best time to get a steal through as being the hand after you have re-raised. By raising to only 11k, I should have known that Mr Lamb would call from the big blind, and therefore that I was much more likely yo go to the flop 3-way rather than 2-way. Indeed, Mr Lamb did call, after a young Chinese player had called also on the button. To break the suspense, Mr Lamb held pocket fours.

(Pot 38,200, my stack 154k)

The flop came Js10s4d, giving me an overpair to the board. Lamb checked, I bet 22k and the Chinese kid passed. The action was back on Mr Lamb, who asked how much I had left. I counted and replied “132 thousand,” and he thought for a little longer before making it 75k to go.

This amount obviously implied that he was raising all my chips, but I was sure was stronger than a straight all-in. I now had the decision to either pass, or put in my remaining 132k, for a pot that would become 346,200. This gave me pot odds of 38%. I’m going to look at the hand in the two opposing ways that poker offers; firstly, the whole psychology of the situation of the time, and then simply the number crunching. I’m going to use a very useful tool called Poker Stove to help me with that.

So, what could Mr Lamb hold for this move? And what about the context of what had gone before that afternoon, where he had obivously treated my every move with suspicion? Well, I think this history actually would have less effect than it might seem, as he was good enough to know that I would in turn give a check-raise from him less credit. In fact, I think he was good enough to know that I must be strong for raising UTG and then betting the flop, and knew that he himself may seem weak. On this basis, I knew that I actually had to give his move slightly more credit than it may seem. One thing that was for sure was that he was definitely not pulling an outright bluff.

The thing that of course concerned me was that the amount he raised was possibly the strongest possible amount to raise, and particularly so after he had asked how much I had left, and then made a re-raise of almost half of it. The precision of asking for the first time how much I had also was cause for concern, as it screamed to me “value bet” much more than in did “bluff.”

But what of the hands that he could value bet that I am beating? These are namely AJ, KJ and QJ? Well, the big thing was that it just did not feel that he would make this re-raise with those hands. He may well have bet them out, and I just really felt that with AJ his check-raise would have been all in. Thinking back, he had been in this exact spot once before, and this time he led out from the BB with the second pair. It all made it feel that his check-raise was very specifically strong.

The problem was that of course there were not many hands that had me beat. He would surely have re-raised JJ or TT before the flop, and so I was left really just to worry about jack-ten or 44. Jack-ten seemed to fit perfectly, and 44 almost so.

A big part of his range would normally be made up by big draws- here AsQs, KsQs, 9s8s, Qs9s, Ks9s were all big contenders, as to a slightly lesser extent, Asxs and KQ or 89 for a straight draw. Once again, I really felt that he would not be clever enough to make the strong looking move with these hands of re-raising half my stack, rather than going all-in.

And what of a hand like Ace-ten or QJ, where he just didn’t believe me? It might seem it, but I just really think it wouldn’t have happened in this spot. The pot was just too big- if he didn’t believe me, he would have flat called.

All of the things I have discussed just contributed to a “feel” that he was big here. It just really did not feel like an ace-jack kind of spot. I’m going to use all of this analysis to do the number crunching, and see whether that can bring me to an exact conclusion. Poker Stove is not something to rely too heavily on, but can be a useful tool to work out your equity against a range of hands. IHere are the equities against certain hands, and then the weighting I have them, and the number of combinations of those hands.

J10 (weighting 9, combos 9=81) Equity= 30%

44 (weighting 8, combos 3=24) Equity= 13.7%

AJ(weighting 3, combos 12=36) Equity=79%

KJ, QJ (weighting 2, combos 12=24) Equity=87%

A10(weighting 1, combos 12=12) Equity-79%

KQ(weighting 2, combos 8=16) Equity=66%

98(weighting 1, combos 16=16) Equity=67%

AsQs(weighting 3, combos 1=3) Equity= 51%

KsQs,9s8s (weighting 4, combos 2=8) Equity=45%

Qs9s,Ks9s(weighting 2, combos 2=4)Equity=53%

As4s(weighting, combos 1=4) Equity=50%

A bit of number crunching tells me that my equity against this range is 49.1%, compared to pot odds of 38%. Well, that tells me to call l I guess, but that is why this number crunching is of limited use. I don’t want to be giving my opponent a range, I want to be giving him a hand. Something just felt really bad in this spot- in fact it really felt like a jack-ten which turned out to be wrong, but I should have followed that feeling and pitched the hand.

17) Blackpool GUKPT Day 1, Friday 14th November

My starting table was fairly typical for one of these GUKPT events- pretty tight, and pretty bad. One of the players who epitomised this limped the CO for 200, and Pete Singleton made up the small blind. I had Jh4h in the big blind, and raised it up 600 more. I think like 75% of the time the action is going to go-call from the CO player, pass from Pete, we both flop nothing, and a half-pot C-bet wins it.

The issue was complicated slightly by the fact I actually flopped something! The flop came J85ss, and I was looking at a pot of 1,800, a an effective stack of 5,500 (3 times the pot).

The action went 1,200 from me, call. (Pot 4,200, effective stack 4,300)

Turn 2d, a brick. I bet 3,000, the cut-off goes all-in for the remaining 1,300, I call, and she tables QJ to send my 20k reeling down to 13.5k.

So, can I give myself the option of not getting all the chips in on this problematic flop? The stack size actually could not be any more awkward, just possibly meaning I shouldn’t pull what looked like an obivous play before the flop?

So, let’s go back to the flop, J85ss, where the pot is 1,800 and the ES 4,300. Can I bet 900 (pot 3,600, ES 3,400), and then check-fold a blank turn. Possibly.

Or bet 900, bet 1,200, and pass for the remaining 1,800. Unlikely.

Or check, call a bet on the flop, and probably check down turn and river? This might be best, but gives free cards to the straight and flush draws.

OR bet 600 (Pot 3,000, ES 3,700) and check-pass the turn|?

I think probably not. I think I can be cautious on the J52 rainbow, but on this flop and blank turn maybe have to stack off.

18) Blackpool GUKPT Day 1, Friday 14th November

The only player at the table who had anything that could be described as a poker game was Rob Cowan, two to my right. Being the other young agressive player at the table, it was inevitable we would clash, and I think I should have thought about this more strongly before making the pass that I did. I had already tried to rile him gently with some banter, so I think I should have been ready for him to try to bluff me.

Rob raised to 125 on the hijack. In actually read alot into the 125, as I thought it was much more likely to be a limping hand where he wanted to control the pot, rather than an Aq or 99 type hand. For this reason, I decided to re-raise in position, with a decent read on his hand range. I had Q5o, made it 350 to go, and he called. The action went:

(Pot 775, flop 652dd, giving me middle pair) Bet 600-call

(Pot 1925, turn 6652dd, pairing the board) Bet 300 from Rob, call from me.

(Pot 2525, river 76522) Bet 1,500 from Rob, eventual pass from me. He later told me he had q8 of diamonds, which I 100% believe.

I think the psychology of the situation should tell me to call, including the big clue sent out by the comically small turn bet when the six paired. This polarised his range to one of two things- either inducing action with a six, or a combo of a free-card and setting up a river bet with a call. I did know not which it was, but I think there was enough reason to be suspicious about the second possiblity.

The seven is obviously a bad card, as now all the flop straight draws beat me, but it becomes far less bad when he makes a big bet. Now I can take 87 and 97 out of his range. I think I should have concentrated more on my read that his hand was either suited or connected,and realised that there were too many hands I could beat. Here is how I analysed his hand range.

Overpair to the board- very unlikely, out ofthe window after his turn bet.

A six- Vey possible, would probably now be a house with 76 or 65. However, there were only a few possiblities for sixes, namely 76,65,86 and A6 suited.

Busted diamonds- fits perfectly, but obv. I cannot beat a seven of diamonds or the 89 of diamonds (straight). However, these hands might have given more action on the flop.

87 or 97- I think made far less likely by the strong river bet. I think if he checks the river, I have to realise he probably has a seven, and bet big.

I think there are too many hands I can beat, and I should call. There was also a big physcial tell that I should picked up on. Rob had made the nut flush on the very first hand of the hand, and did a “fake shake” a little to try to get Pete Signleton to call. He did not do that this time, and I should have picked up on this. All in all, the clues were all there, and so I need to ask myself why I didn’t have the instinct to make the call. Somehow, I am not getting myself into the mindset to make these big decisions, but then am able to see it all afterwards. It was a pot that would have had me as low as 4,500 if I was wrong, but I should be far less self conscious about the chip positions, and be in a better position to go with my instinct.

19) Blackpool GUKPT Day 1, Friday 14th November

The other interesting character at the table was the only unpleasant one. It was an old guy who seemed to take exception to my aggression. Not only did this mean he was less likely to believe me, but he was also more likely to take me on in a pot.

He limped the hijack, the SB made it up for 200, and I made it 600 more with AhJh. He called, and I put him on a wide range of marginal hands.

The flop came out A62 rainbow. I checked, and he bet 1,200 into 1,800. He looked nervous about this, and at this point I should have been absolutely clear that he was bluffing with air. The turn and river both came fives. We checked the turn, and the action was to me on the river, as I felt that he was ready to bluff. I think the best way to make him do that would have been to make a comically small bet, rather than to check. There is definitely a case for making this small bet on the turn, before checking the river. This works particualrly well if he misses a draw on the turn, but may lose me good value if he has true air.

It’s yet another case for me of feeling slightly jumbled during a live hand. I need sometimes to make my mind up on a read, and go very strongly with that read. I also remember feeling worried that he may have hit running fives. This is just ridiculous, I need to stop worrying about unlikely hands so much.

20) Blackpool GUKPT Day 1, Friday 14th November

Missed value bet

My opponent was clearly a weak player with a big stack- loose, cally, but also passive. I had KJo, and made up the 1,000 small blind with 29,000 behind. He checked the big, and the flop came out J109 rainbow. I bet 1,100 into 2,575, and he re-rasied to 2,600. There is no choice but to call here. (Pot 7,575) The turn and river came to blank the board J10953.

He bet an unsure looking 2,600 on the turn (Pot 7,575, my stack 26,400), and I flat called. This made a pot on 12,775 on the river, which we both checked. I missed a clear value bet here. The obvious logic is that I would have to call up to a 4k bet from such a clueless player, but that he is going to check behind alot of hands like the K9 he had that I am beating. The big clue for me is his fishy “repeat bet” on the turn, which usually means a weak one a pair from these bad players. I think I can also pick up from this kind of action that he has a straight draw (good news, as I beat every pair and straight draw hand). So, I think I should value bet 3k on the end, but maybe even 10k? This depends on how much of a calling station he is, but I should really use a great turn and river to my advantage. It’s difficult to get into a bad player’s mentality, but I think he may put me on a busted straight draw, but also will be defeated by his own confusion.

Is there even a case for value raising the turn? I do have the 2nd nut one pair hand, and good outs against 109. The big problem is that I might deny myself a great river card against a hand like 109or the bottom straight, and could lose value. I think this would be an overly risky move, but may be the right one.

21) Blackpool GUKPT Day 1, Friday 14th November

A bad player limped in mid-position with a wide range of marginal hands, and I made it up in the SB with K5 (no diamond), and the 150/300 (25) blinds. There was 1,125 in the pot, going to the A93ddd flop. It was checked round, and it just felt like the CO player did not have much interest in the pot- i.e. no ace, no nine, no high diamond, and no flush.

The turn came the best card to bluff- an offsuit nine. I decided to put the mid position player on a small pocket pair, and bet out 600. He made a weak looking call, and we saw a blank seven on the river. The pot was 2,325, and I bet 500. He raised to 2,500, and showed 77 for a rivered house. I said something like “pwpelsff,” frustrated that the obvious read was right. I think my bet is awful though- I should bet slightly more, to make sure that he will be folding, if hehas 66 or 55, instead of his 77.

22) Blackpool GUKPT Day 1, Friday 14th November

Possible missed value.

Rob Cowan limped UTG for 400, and I made it 1,300 UTG+2 with AK off. Angry old guy called from the small blind, and Rob actually passed. The flop came out AxQx3c (Pot 3,600, my stack 13,300), and the old guy bet out 1,625. This was good news really; it felt like (very likely AJ/likely flush draw/ possible AK, unlikely but possible AQ). I decided to flat call, to use position, and under-rep my hand. The turn came a king, a great card. (turn AKQ3cc, pot 6,850, my stack 11,675), and I had to decide how best to get all the money it. I bet 3,000 into the 6,850 pot, and he called. (Pot 11,850, my stack 8,675). The river came the absolute gin card, the king of clubs, to give me the 2nd nut house. I looked down at my stack, and bet 6,700. He made a frustrated call, and showed AJ, making me wonder whether I really should have got the last 1,975 in as well. I think my turn bet can be slightly bigger, as he is just not passing AJ,KQ or s flush draw, and in fact should be 4k.

Of course, his call on the end is an awful one, but he does not know this. I think it’s a spot where I’m losing for every chip I don’t get into the pot against this poor player.

23) Blackpool GUKPT Day 2, Sunday 15th November

For all the awful play against me on Friday, the donkeys were completlely overshadowed early on Saturday. Unfortunately, they were overshadowed by me, in one of the worst plays I have ever made. This is definitely the worst of the 23 mistakes so far, and hopefully will remain the worst for a while! Here’s the pot:

I raised to 3,300 on the CO with 55, with a stack of 58k. The big blind is an unknown player, but seems fairly clueless, a bit spewy, but at least seems fairly loose and passive like the rest of them. He re-raises to 8,700, and I mistakenly put him on a decent hand. I called, leaving him a stack of 29,500 with a pot of 18,500 going to the flop. The flop came Jc8c7x, and we both checked. The turn came the miracle 5 of diamonds, and I checked behind his check, now putting him 90% on AK or AQ. The river came the three of diamonds, putting a possible backdoor flush out there, on a board of J8753ddd. He checked, I value bet 11,000, and only then did the craziness start.

He started to riffle with his chips, doing this incredibly annoying thing of riffling them in a way that advertised his cluelessness. Rather quickly for him, he put the rest of his chips in, and I hated life. It would be 18,500 more to me, making a pot of 67,500 (pot odds 3.75 to 1).

What was immiediately fairly clear was that I could probably only beat a bluff. The exception to this 33, or just possible AA played like a complete muppet. I had to have a good think through a number of unlikely possiblites, and this is how they looked in my racing mind:

Rivered flush- he would not have bet his turned flush draw? And to make what was probably the nut flush, and play for a check raise? It was possible, but most people wouldn’t do it.

Flopped set or straight- It would seem very unlikely to not value bet this on the turn, and even more so on the river.

AA or two pair- I would just really hope not, but I guess it had to be possible.

A river bluff- Of course, this was the one big possiblity for a hand I could beat, but could it really be true? For an amateur to make a check-raise all-in stone cold bluff on the river. Why not bet out the river if he thought I had nothing. Of course, it’s dangerous to credit these players with any logic, but this would seem an unusual thing to do. But what would he do with a hand like AQ or A9, if he panicked. Something about his overemotional personatlity maybe should have told me it was possible.

The problem could of course be that my 11k value bet is very big, and makes it look like I have nothing. Could he then have suddenly decided to do something that he had never logically planned to do, and thought the only chance he had of winning the pot was to go all-in.

Of course, I passed, and he showed ace-nine high. It was an awful, awful moment, and left me feeling sick.

Incidentally, I think there are another couple of mistakes in the hand, that I should note. Theyare not directly relevant to the eventual outcome, though of course would have changed it. Firstly, I should put him on AK on the flop, and make a half-pot stab. I am really disappointed to realise that I think I froze a little, and preferred to check it down. I think I should also make a small value bet on the turn- it does not affect too much the fact that he won’t give me any credit on the river. As it turned out, of course I gave him free cards on both streets (double belly duster on the turn).

For all the logic of the hand, the problem also could just come down to body language. It really shouldn’t be possible for someone to make such a massive bluff, and for me not to pick it off. I think I need to assure myself a bit more at the table by making the following adjustments:

• I have to take more time over my crucial decisions, and allow myself to consider the hand from all the angles that I do in this column.
• I have to make sure I’m watching my opponent at all the crucial times. My analysis is always split almost direclty in two. First of all, I should do all my analysis, as I would in the online game.Having got everything I can from that (here, it would simply be “I can only beat a bluff,”) I should then put all my thought into working out just from psychology and body language, whether he is bluffing.
• The other problem in the hand is my freeze up on the flop. I really have to keep my composure much better in the big hands, and this is something I still need to work on.

24) Blackpool GUKPT Day 1, Friday 21st November, £1000 Main Event

Missed value in a good spot.

I think I just about minimised my value in what was a good spot for me. The old guy raised the 150/300 blinds to 900 in late position, and I called with AKo in the big blind. (Pot 1,900, and the effective stack was 15k). The size of his raise combined with something in his demeanour, a mix of genuinenss and aggression, just said “medium pocket pair.” It seemed liekly he had 88 or 99, and I think this was a good spot to change a vague read into a definite one. There will always be a choice of fairly close ways to play if I do hit an ace or a king, and so I think this is a spot where I should have decided to play the hand, as if he definitely had this hand.

The board came out K73104, and I checked each street, calling a 1,225 bet on the turn. I think my strategy on the king high flop should be to get two big bets in the middle. I think I should lead the flop fairly big, and then probably check the turn, and bet the end. There is a case for bet-bet-bet, which I think is a good one if I bet small on the turn. Given that I check-called the turn, I should clearly lead out the end, and I think this is a real bad case of missed value.

The real disappointment here is that I am sometimes over conscious of hands that can beat me in these tournaments. With an effective stack of 8BBs, I think I need to be more realistic, and be prepared to get it all in on a king high flop.

And an ace high flop? This is trickier, as I should aim to get less value. Bet-check-bet may still work, but I think check-call-bet probably works best.

25) Amsterdam 1000 Event, Friday 16th November, First Day

Blinds of 25/50, and Jan Boubli makes it 150 in 3rd position after one limper. Two players called in between, and I looked down at AhJh. Given the cally nature of the game and I read I had on Boubli, it should have been absolutely obvious that a) Boubli had a speculative hand that wanted to see the flop and b) the other players had non-threatening hands. I think my hand really should be a squeeze here, but I opted to call and see a flop.

(Pot 800, flop A55 rainbow)

Boubli bet out 450, called by the talented Dan Ruiter in between. I think a call is obvious here, but I should have chosen differently when both players checked to me on the A552 turn. Now it was clear Ruiter did not have a five, so I almost definitely had him out-kicked.I should have bet to get value/protect my hand, and ultimately to stop happening what transpired- Boubli made a wierd but ultimatley successful bluff with Jd7d on a blank river.

26) Amsterdam 6000 Euro Main Event, Tuesday 20th November

Two failed check-raises.

Twice I tried the cash game play of check-raising a dry flop after calling and missing from the BB,and twice I failed.

Firstly, with Ks10s, I checked a flop of A72hh to the CO raiser. He bet a small 150 into 375, and I check-raised to 400. He then re-re-raised to 1,100 which I suspect may not have been a genuine hand. The reason I made the play was that I thought his 150 bet might be weak, but really I think the best size may have been 200.I think from such a strong young player, this bet is either really strong or setting up a 3-bet spot to represent strength. I would actually guess he may have had the nut flush draw, but either way, I think I chose a non-optimum spot to bluff.

Secondly, I called a raise from the button to 300 with 7c5c, and checked a K33 flop. My button opponent bet 500, andI think this is actually a bit too big to try what I did- a re-raise to 1,300. He called, and bet the river after checking a blank turn. I think the idea is right, but in both spots, I may have just been a little too enthusiastic to pull a move.

27) GUKPT London Main Event, Final table, Sunday 30th November, Final hand

(Blinds 8k/16k (1000), five-handed, round is 29k. My stack 500k)

There is going to be alot from London, and I’ll start with the toughest and the last. This is definitely the hand that will live longest in the memory, and is very possibly the worst mistake.

I looked down at KQo in the small-blind, as Norweigan Svanes raised the button to 40k. I made the call (93k pot), and we saw a K54 rainbow flop. I checked, the Norweigan bet 65k (Pot 193k if I call), and I moved all-in, for 385k more. He snaps, tables AK, and a miracle can’t save me from a sudden knock-out, after being the chip leader twenty minutes before.

The first thing to say is that this is an big over-push- 395k into a called pot of 193k doesn;t sound too bad, but putting in 450k to win 158k surely is. There is just no point to the push- it will get thin value out of a tight range that includes little more than KJ and possibly K10, and of course denies me the value of him firing off another barrel if he is bluffing. The king high rainbow board is the perfect one to play pasively on, and it is worth taking the tiny risk that he will have a hand like AQ and hit his ace. The reason the push is so horrible is that my hand really isn’t functioning at all- I almost might as well have 65 and more outs.

For all that I have done, there are still ways in which I haven’t made the adaption from online to live poker. I thought “what if he fires three barrels with the straight draw?” but this just does not happen. The pot should probably go- call from me, (pot now 193k, I’m playing 395k), the turn comes a four, he will bet 110k, I will call, leaving 285k and a pot of 413k, and I think I can confidently pass the end. As it happens, it came a jack, and this would be an easy pass, but I would be also on K5448,K5443,K5447, or even K5544.

There are two big regrets I have about the pot, and one is this. As we went into the pot, I had just been on a spiral down from the chip lead, having lost a big pot against Duvall AIPF AQ vs KJ, and the full house against Pab (next hand to be described on here). I wasn’t fully aware how many chips I had, as I hadn’t had time to count, but something I have got to get used to doing is this- just put a chip on my cards, and allow myself time to think.

The other major aspect of the hand is that I was beginning to get a good physical read on the Norweigan. On this hand, two things happened which should have been a big clue. He stopped for longer than usual to think before he made his flop bet- it was a pause long enough that I should have known it wasn’t a normal continuation bet. More crucially, the 65k went into the pot with a shaky hand; this really should have been a warning that he might have a massive hand. It makes me realise that, even though I am beginning to pick up tells a little, I still have a long way to go before I can capatalise on my instinct, and make good reads on them.

I’m sad to say it, but I lost my composure on this hand. I should have realised that my mind wasn’t as cool as it usually is, having swung down in the previous few minutes from a chip leading 838k to 500k, and all I needed to do was to say to myself “stop and think.”

Another really disappointing aspect of this hand was how it contrasts to the hand before, where I feared I had played too passively against Pab. It’s horrible to say that I may have let this worry play on my mind a little, and let myself make a mistake in the other direction. It really does show that I still have to work at my composure at the table, and it maybe still hasn’t reached the heights that I think it has.

28) GUKPT Grand Final, final table,Sunday 30th November, the Pab hand

Coming back after the break as the five-handed chip leader, I played out a pot with Pab, who was sat to my immediate right. He began the hand with 480k by making a raise to 40k, and I flatted the button with jacks. He bet every street of a 844K3 board, and I called two streets before passing the river. The relevant pot sizes and bets were

Flop-(Pot 109k, effective stack 440k, he bets 55k , call)

Turn-(Pot 219k, effective stack 385k, he bets 90k, call)

River-(Pot 399k, effective stack 295k, he moves all-in, pass)

The pass on the end is easy given the spot. I was not absolutely sure, but I felt that Pab was not going to triple barrel complete air. He confirmed this exact sentiment after, and also was really kind to tell me that he had pocket threes, and had taken the lead on the river with a full house. So, on the river I found the best option, and on each previous street, the second best. Can I find the best (a raise) at any point?

Pre flop- (Pab’s 40k raise puts 69k in the pot, and his stack is 440k). The biggest problem that I need to conisder with my game is that I am too passive in these spots, and do not like to three bet the kind of hand like jacks. If I do, it is to 130k, and it gives him the perfect stack size to 4-bet all-in. This decision would be a horrible one,as his range would be something like (JJ,QQ,KK,AA, 75% 1010, 50% 99, 60% AQ, 30%AJ, 30%88), and it think the equity of a call would be almost exactly neutral. At the same time, I think I worried too much about this posssiblity. Although Pab is a wonderful and aggressive player, I think I worry too much, and need to be far more realistic about the limits of sickness in ‘live’ poker. He had also passed quite quickly to previous three bets. However, I do not hate this decision, as I have certain advantages of playing a flop in position.

On the flop- The big problem with a re-raise on the flop is that it looks like a move- or even worse like an “information” re-raise with a hand like 66. If I re-raise to 135k, his stack after a call would be 305k, giving him the good move for an all-in. It is definitely fair to say that a re-raise from me here could only be with the intention of getting all the chips in (otherwise my hand is playing no function as jacks). If I let him see two cards with an underpair, I gain a bit of value and run the risk of a 8% outdraw, and two overcards a 24% outdraw.

So, the question is, do I want to commit my stack and play for value with jacks here? His 55k bet puts 164k in the pot, and he is playing 385k behind. There is almost zero danger in being bluffed off the best hand, as I am calling on any turn, and passing to any three-barrel. I gain 90k of value if I flat-call and my hand holds up, but against his range of hands I beat, I am probably handing him a 14% outdraw chance. If I (effectively) move in for his last 385k, I imagine his range for getting it in is (AA,KK,QQ,1010, an eight, sometimes AK, sometimes 99, sometimes a random bluff). This is not a spot I like, but I think I really need to be prepared to get it in more marginally than I often do.

On the turn- AFter his 90k bet, there is 309k in the pot, and 295k in his stack. I could make it 200k and pass for the rest, but the only point of this is to relive myself of the 4% outdraw chance of an underpair, or at most the 16% of AQ. There is no bluffing value in re-raising here, and very little danger I will be bluffed off on the end.

All in all, I am quite happy to see that I didn’t play the hand too badly. I think I should definitely have been raising Pab a little more in position though (though maybe JJ is not the hand to do it with), and that I definitely worry too much about these spots.

29) GUKPT Grand Final, final table, Sunday 30th November, the hand immediately after

A little shaken from this hand, I raised the Norweigan’s blind on the very next hand to 42k with 9h8h. His call gave us a pot of 89k going to the flop. The flop came QQ10, and I echoed his check to see a QQ107 turn. He bet 55k, and I passed my straight draw.

This one is quite simple. He might decide to come after me on the flop, but there is too much equity to not c-bet that flop. He might well believe I would bet three queens here, and I gave him way too much credit in worrying that he might sniff a re-raise here. It’s a real example of how my online play is different (where I prefer to play air on this flop for a delayed c-bet), and unfortunately it affected me here.

I think I needed to be realistic and ask myself “am I’m going to re-raise the turn if he bets?” Knowing that the answer was no, I should have made the easier play of betting the flop.

And should I re-raise the turn? I think he will put down (an airball, a seven, maybe a ten, a weak draw), and so I probably should do. It’s a play that looks much stronger in live poker than the suspicious online environment, and so I think it was a mistake not to. Bad missed opportunity here. In fact, I think it is a better play than betting the flop, as there is no chance that he can bluff me off the hand.

29B) GUKPT Grand Final, Final table in general

I’m pretty pleased with the way I played the final table, and I was pretty aggressive all the time. However, I am very aware that I have alot of gears, but maybe not the 6th one. I just wonder whether at the final table (and towards the end of day two), the situation was calling for a super-aggressive game. I think I sitll need sometimes to be able to run over the table, and I am one step short of doing this at the moment.

30) GUKPT Grand Final, Day 2, Saturday 29th November

In the big blind of 6,000 with 125k and the jack-ten of diamonds, Eric Svanes raised from the small blind to 18k. I called, and we saw a rainbow of AK10. He bet 24.4k, and I called (standard). I hit a ten on the turn, an absolute gin card, and it went check-check, and a seven came on the end, completing a very unlikely runner-runner flush draw. Svanes bet 44k, and I made the instant call. Stack sizes were:

(On the flop, I have 107k, pot 41k)

(After the flop, I have 82.5k, pot 89.8k)

When he bets44k, I have 38.5k behind. This mistake is actually worse than I realised- this is just a standard shove. Turn check has to be right, as there is a good chance he will bluff alot of rivers. The only reason it is right, however, is if I can be sure I will get it in against an ace on a blank river anyway.

31) GUKPT Grand Final, Aces and 3-betting

I picked up aces a lucky five times during the course of the final, and in certain spots feel that I did not get proper value from them. There were amazingly three spots in which I was 3-bet by aggressive players. Each time I 4-bet, and wondered each time whether I had lost my balls to find the correct slow-play.

1) (My stack 78k, blind 1k-2k. I am the cutoff, Pab is the small blind). I make it 6k, Pab makes it 18k, and I will have 60k behind in a 39k pot if I make the call. Instead, I move all-in, and Pab passes KQ of spades. This is the most clear mistake of the three. In position, this is the most obivous spot to find some balls, and just press the call button.

2) (My stack 160k, blinds 2.5k-5k, I am the hijack, Pab is the button). I make it 15k, Pab makes it 42k, and I move in for 118k more. It gives him a call of 118k to win 328k (about 36% pot odds) He passes pocket sevens. If I flat-call, I will be playing 118k out position in a 91k pot. This is bizarrely almost exactly the same spot as the first, and I think my move in is probably right out of position, and given that he has passed to the 4-bet before.

3) (Final table, blinds 5k-10k, I’m playing 490k, and make it 30k from the button, Svanes makes it 90k from the small blind).

This is the only spot where I have a chance to 4-bet to 200k, and hope that he pushes for the rest. However, it felt better to move all-in, as it looks weaker. A flat-call here would give me position, and a stack of 400k in a 198k pot. This is a little bigger than I would have liked (perfect spot is about 1.3 times the pot), and so I think this was the right option.

The spot against Pab is the one I will always remember as losing my balls, I think the other two are probably right.

32) GUKPT Grand Final, Day 2, Saturday 29th November

In a hand against Robin Keston, I limped the SB with A5 off, and we checked a K74dd flop. I bet 9k (2/3 pot) on a K754ddd turn, and checked the K7754ddd end, to catch a bluff. He checked, and showed 42, with the two of diamonds. I think I shouldn’t check to catch a bluff in a blind on blind situation, as it is unlikely he has the ace of diamonds. It would be clearer on a board without a straight draw, but I feel there is a good value bet against a four, but also a five, which I have outkicked. A good value bet could be as big as 70% of the pot, and the reason why this hand seems tempting as a bluff catcher rather than value bettor is that I can make a value bet bigger than he would make a bluff.

The range to call is any four and any other five,whilst his range to value bet includes a six with any diamond, an ace or king of diamonds, any possibly an eight with a diamond. I think this hand is probably just about a check (why hasn’t he bet a four on the flop?), but that my check would be a clear mistake if the board was K9954ddd, rather than K7754ddd.

33) GUKPT Grand Final, Day 1, Thursday 27th November

I had been at a ridiculously good and aggressive table all day, a pattern which continued with the arrival of Karl Mahrenlohz to my right.

He raised to 1,100 (blinds of 200/400) on the CO, and I made it 3,300 with an effective stack of 19k on the button, with Ks2s. He thought for a while, and put in enough chips to put me all-in. (And I decide to make the pass!)

This was a retarded move in two ways. Firstly, it was completely the wrong type of opponent, as I had not 3-bet with air all day. Being the only one to just arrive at the table, he of course was the only one to not know this.

I also made the mistake of assuming that Karl was a very good aggressive player, but would not 4-bet bluff. This is not true- he is actually a sicker puppy than I thought.

34) GUKPT Grand Final, Day 2, Saturday 29th November

Start of the second day now, and I’ve come back with 48k. Blinds are 600/1200 (100), and Cascarino raises UTG to 3,400. William Martin calls UTG+2, and I call from the BB with QcJc. My first mistake is that I should be far more aware of Martin’s range than I was- it is polarised heavily by (77,88,99,10,10,AQ,AJ)

Flop comes Kc5c4c (Pot 11k, my stack 44.6k), giving me the 2nd nut flush, and it’s checked round.

Turn Kc5c4c8c, counterfeiting my hand. Checked round.

River Kc5c4c8c4d. Checked round.

I made two mistakes in the hand. Firstly, this is clear lead on the flop, becuase it is king high rather than eight high.

SEcondly, I think I should value bet rather than bluff catch the end. Martin has loads of hands that can beat a bluff, but few hands without showdown value that need to bluff. Also, if he needed to bluff, he may have started it on the turn.

35) Prague EPT, Wednesday 9th December, Day 1a

Couple of two pair hands:

A couple of slightly wierd two pair hands, that I maybe played too passively.Let’s have a look:

1) I raise 7h5h EP to 375 (blinds 75/150). One strong, young Finnish guy calls on the hijack. The board comes 852 rainbow, so I flop the middle pair. A bet is difficult here, so I check, which he echoes.

The turn and river come 852710, and I check to him twice, and insta-call bets of 500 and 1,000. I probably got this one right, as I feel he was bluffing, but it felt like an over passive way to play the hand.

2) Blinds 150/300 (25). I raise Js10s EP to 750, the big blind Brolin calls, and slightly fishy French guy calls. The board comes KdJh8d, and we all check. The French guy checks in a way that makes me feel he has nothing at all. Turn comes KJ86hhdd, I bet 2,200 and the French guy calls. It looks like he could have a diamond draw, though possibly an eight or a six. A jack or a king seems unlikely. The river comes KJ1086hhhdd, giving me two pair and completing the flop flush draw. ACtion goes check-check.

I think a small bet to induce a raise might be the best plan.He obivously does not have the heart flush, and is probably playing a one pair hand like 87,76 or 77. The only way of getting value out of these hands is inviting him to turn them into a bluff.

36)Prague EPT, Wednesday 9th December, Day 1a

I raised Ac8c mid position to 900, with blinds of 150/300(25), on Levi’s big blind. He re-raises 2,600 more, leaving himself 11,000 behind, and I think I should push. There is a wide range with which he does this, and I felt this was probably coming.

37) Prague EPT, Wednesday 9th December, Day 1a

Couple of failed bluffs:

1)Will Fry came to the table, and seemed to be playing like an absolute nutter (although he told me on this hand that he had J10)

He raised CO to 525 (100/200), and I defended Q9. Board came Kj3J: flop was check-check, and turn I bet 550, and he raised 1,200 more. Problem is, his check on the flop tightens his range to (hands with a jack, underpairs to the jack), but is weighted quite heavily to jacks. I think probably the best thing to do in this hand is to re-raise before the flop.

2) Blinds 200/400(25), now we have a bad player at the table, a loose-passive local. He raises to 1,500, and I can’t wait to call the BB with 7s6s. Board comes K52h3h5h; action is check-check; I bet 1,700-quick call;I bet 3,000-he raises something, I pass.

The way he called on the turn held up a sign saying he had a draw, which I took to be a gutshot. I think I should have studied him more carefully, read him for the heart draw, and maybe decided the river was the wrong card to bluff.

38) Prague EPT, Wednesday 9th December, Day 1a

Butchered AK pre-flop

Blinds are 200/400(25), and the effective stacks are

Russian guy 17k- this is the guy called the cockroach, he seems to be playing an over-aggressive tilt.

Me 28k

New fishy player- 15k

Russian guy opens 1,200 EP, I flat with AK, new fishy player makes it 5k more, in a quick and weak way. Russian guy fairly quickly calls, I pass.

The problem is that I have no fold equity, and would need to play 3-way for their 17k and 15k stacks. My assessment of their hands was wrong, as their actions should have signalled to me that they were towards the weak end of their ranges. The fishy guy seemed to have either AK or 1010, but the Russian guy could have been as weak as AQ, or even A10s. I think I should either have 3-bet the Russian pre-flop, and been prepared to play for stacks, or have been prepared to gamble against both of them.

39) Prague EPT, Wednesday 9th December, Day 1a

Value betting aces

I have aces,and raise Brolin’s big blind to 375 (pot 800). The board comes 109610K, and he telegraphs that he has hit the flop marginally, has something on the turn, and that the river has done something interesting.

I check, bet 550, and bet 1,200, and he calls and shows K9. I think my two value bets should probably be a little bigger, but that I should maybe bet the flop. I could possibly bet 550-600-1,400 under the same action, or even 550-1200-2000. I think I am too passive with aces against bad players here, and should maybe aim to get three streets of value.

40) Prague EPT side events, 12th-14th December 2008

The side events in Prague turned out to be a real disappointment, both in terms of my play and luck, but mainly because of the shockingly bad structures. However, they still threw up a few mistakes, so here we go:

A) A talented young Dutch guy raised to 525 from the KO, and I defended my big blind with 66. The board came out Q1035Q, and had been checked down to the river. I now believed my sixes were good. I decided to throw out a comically small 125, partly for thin value, but mainly to induce a bluff. The Dutch guy raised to 775, and I had to call. He showed K10, for what is a super read of the situation and great value bet.

The idea is a decent one against a talented player, but this was completely the wrong spot. It’s the right idea where there has been previous betting, and I can rightly represent worries about my hand. Here, the checks from a good player show that he definitely has show down value, and so I should be worried when he does decide to bluff. I think I should have passed, as I don’t necessarily have to follow my plan through just because I started it.

B) A poor player on the button raised by blind to 550, and I defended 85 of clubs. The flop came out 1076 for an open-ender, and I check-called 900. I knew I could bluff the end small if it blanked out, and knew a check-raise would be replied to with an all-in from an overpair. The board rolled out 1076s3s9s, giving me the straight on the end. The guy’s check on a blank turn was a quick one, and I thought suggested that he did not have a great hand to value bet.I therefore decided to play to catch a bluff on the end, but was foiled by a check behind. What I’m not sure about is this- is a weak player more or less likely to construct a bluff on this connected end? They are definitely more likely than a strong player I think, but I’m not sure what the right plan is here.

C) This mistake is just awful, and I really hope is a kind I will not have to report in 2009. I limped As5s for 50, and the small blind made it 225 to go. I called after the big blind, and we all checked a flop of Q103. The turn came a second queen and a second spade, and the big blind player bet 400 into the 675 pot. I had a stack of 3.5k, and decided to raise to 1,200, with no certain plan for the end. The BB player moved all-in, I had to pass, and he showed king-queen. My stack in this spot meant that this really was an awful re-raise.

D) A poor looking player raised to 125 in MP and I called the button with sixes. The BB called, and the flop rolled out a beautiful KhQd6h, giving me the bottom set. The raiser bet 175, and called my re-raise to 475.The board came out KQ6hhd3d9d, completing a OESD on the flop and backdoor flush draws. I had value bets paid off of 1,100 and 2,200 after a minute’s dwell up.

The value bet on the end I think is right, and I would say I found the borderline of his calling range as he agonised over a call. I just wonder in this spot whether I should be trying to find bigger value bets on the flop and turn. Are there any hands he calls for 475, but passes for 675? Possibly not. Althought it sometimes feels a disaster to have your opponent pass on the flop, as it denies you two more streets of value, equally a big value bet on the flop really inflates a pot for later on (equivalent betting could be 675, 1,500, 3,000, for a total of 5175 rather than 3775.)

E) Another value spot: With blind of 150/300, I checked behind A6 after the small blind completed. The board came out a rainbow A8456, and the action was

Flop- he bet 400, I call (pot 1.4k)

Turn- He check-called 1k(pot 3.4k)

River- He tank-passed 2k of his remaining 4k stack

I think I should maybe re-raise the flop here; I am unlikely to catch a 2-barrel bluff, almost definitely have the best hand, and I do want to inflate this pot in position. The river bet is a shame as he was really close to calling. Could 1.5k be better against a bad player?

41) Irish Poker Champs, Galway, 1,500 Euro Main Event

I look down at KcQc and raise to 750 (150/300(25)) under the gun. Two callers in mid position, and the big blind calls.

Flop 10c6c6h, 3.3k in the pot, I am playing 14.8k.

3 checks to the last player, who bets 1,500, in an aggressive but unconfident way that says he has something, but not a 6. His range seems to be a 10 (most likely A10, but K10, Q10 and J10 possible), and possibly 99,88,77, maybe 5s or lower.

I check raise to 3,600, and he makes a very quick call. I read the quick call as the nut flush draw, but it is more likely he is signalling a lack of confidence in his hand.

The pot is 10,200 and I’m playing 11.2k. I should now move in on the turn (which comes 2h), but instead make a connecting bet of 1,600, to get him off the nut flush draw. Best is to bet 7k/8k, which definitely implies all-in. Instead, I bet 1.6k, and then 7k, which he snaps off on the 4h end with A10.

42) 1,000 Euro Event, Aviation Club de Paris

I am playing circa 33k and raise to 1,600 with J8o on the HJ with blinds at 300/600(25). One caller, who is the button and a pretty standard/weak player.Flop 10 2 2 cc, and I bet 3k into 4.4k. He makes what looks like a stubborn call.

Pot is now 10.4k, I’m playing 28.4k. Turn makes the board 10c2c2x Ac, and I give up. (River comes a 9, and he actually bets 4k or something)

I think I should realise that the ace of clubs is actually the perfect card for me to continue, and bet 7k and then 18k nearly all-in. Though the ace of clubs might have smacked him, I will at least find this out. I will also get a visual tell from a hand like Qc10, where he will check his cards, and pass the end. His range on the flop looks like

-Flush draw- but now he cannot have the nut flush draw, and this is fairly crucial.

- Ace-ten- unlikely to release

- Lots of other tens (K10,Q10,J10,109). These are very likely to be suited, of course not in clubs.

- Any low pocket pair- 50/50% he has a club, but he is not hero calling with a hand like 6c6s.

- He could have ace-high on the flop, and particualry could have an unpassable hand like AxQc. However, he might have passed the flop with Aj, and he might have 3-bet pre-flop with ace-king.

I think the reason I didn’t bluff was that the player was a bit crap. However, the kind of call that is going to thwart me here is a hero call with Jh10h, or 6s6c. Bad players don’t make hero calls, they just make stubborn, attached calls, with hands like Qc10x. The fact that he is less likely to have these hands means that I am pretty safe to bluff here. Big danger hand is a hand like AQ or AJ here. For this reason, I might be best aiming a bluff at just the top two of these hand groups:

1) Low pocket pair

2) J10,Q10,K10, no club

3) an ace

4) A flush

To bluff off these top two groups, it is important to realise that my bluff only needs to be cheap. Therefore, 5k and then 8k might be best, as they are just as effective as 8k/18k.

43) 1,000 Euro Event, Aviation Club de Paris

I raised 9c8c UTG to 20k (4k/8k(500)), and a French player called from the small blind. He seemed standard budget player- a bit too cally, but also likely to not re-raise with hands that he should. I’m playing 185k, and the bubble is fast approaching.

Flop J105, one club, (Pot 52k)

He checks way too quickly. I know that he has hit something, but should have worked out that he actually had hit something very big (he had flopped a set of tens). I check behind.

Turn J1053, now two clubs to give me 15 outs.

He bets 30k into 52k, I call, pot 112k.

River I miss, KJ1053. He checks, I bet 55k, and he makes a slow call with tens, saying “I think you have ace-queen, but I have to call.”

I think I have to bluff the river really with 112k in the pot, and I think I did well not to burn chips on the flop or turn. The only thing against the bluff was that I would have preferred his check to be a little slower.

So, what am I trying to bluff off here, and what will they fold for?

-Flopped set- I don’t think he passes for 50k, or for 120k.

-AJ/QJ- I think he will pass for 65k, it is the perfect scare card for me. 50k he might count the pot, and not pass.

- Flopped two-pair- I think he might actually pass for a massive bet, but I can’t see him passing for 50k.

-A flopped ten (Q10,A10,109)-I think he probably passes for 40k plus. It’s definitely very difficult to see how ace-ten is winning.

So, I can either bet 40k to get him off a ten, or 65k to add a jack to the range. There is very little point betting more than 65k, but 65k does make him pass double the range that 40k does, and so this is probably the correct bet. A jack seems more likely than a ten, because of his unusally quick check on the flop.

44) 1,000 Euro Event, Paris

Missed value

I’m playing 100k, and raise with 77, and hit a miracle flop of Ax8c7c. I have had one caller (standard bad player) on the cut-off, and we’re playing a pot of 24k. (I have raised 2k/4k to 11k).

I bet 20k, and he calls, and so I have 80k in a 64k pot.

Turn is a king of clubs, and I bet 40k.

I think I am getting all the money in against a flush/two pair or better hand anyway, and so I need to focus my attention on the hands like AQ and AJ, whether or not they have a club.

If I bet 30k, he is probably comitted for 30k on the end, and I can always get away if the club comes and he bets (just no chance of him bluffing).

25k is probably laying him odds to call, and does not commit him to the pot. So, my bet was a little too much, there is no need to be too worried here.

45) EPT Deauville, 5,000 Euro Main Event, Day one

Blinds 25/50, and I have Qs8s in the small blind. A really weak player raises to 175 from EP, and I make an unusually speculative call. Flop is Ks10s3x, check-check.

Turn is KsJx10s3x, and I check-call 350 with my 15 outs.

River is offsuit five, and I actually make a silly 150 bet to get the wrong image/get him off ace-high. Hr snap calls 53, for two pair.

However weak this player is, I think I should be betting out the turn (It would get him off a hand which I’m not going to be making money off anyway)

The hands he has which I am exicted about (two pair, straight), I am more than happy to build a pot. Therefore, I should either bet out, or maybe check-raise.

Check-raise builds a pot if I hit, and gets him off his rubbish hands that he will bet.I probably have great equity in building a pot as I have 15 outs, and will most likely only be betting if I do hit. If the dream card comes (9s or As), I can make an over-szied bet, and win a much bigger pot.

So, I had a failure of logic here. Although I do want to play to the river against his range, I have a good chance of cutting off the bottom,pointless end of his range with either a bet-out or check-raise on the turn.

46) EPT Deauville, 5,000 Euro Main Event, Day 1

I’m playing 8.8k, and pick up AhAd UTG with blinds of 150/300(25). I raise to 800, and Clemencon re-raises to 2.2 k in the small blind. I have 6.6k behind, and a move in would have him calling 6.6k to win 18k (about 36% pot odds).

The mistake I made him Clemencon was not realising that avery good, aggressive internet kid is probably the player most likely to make a good fold. (In general, this is one of the skills of a very good player). I moved in, he tanked for ages, and passed. If I call, we’re playing 6.6k effective into 4.8k, which is nearly perfect. Here is the breakdown of how a flat-call or move in measures against the different hands (If I flat call, I think I represent 99-JJ, or ace-king).

Kings- Flat-call could miss out in the unlikely event an ace flops

Queens- Flat-call could miss out 25% of the time when an ace or king flops.

Jacks- I think he is 50% to call the all-in with JJ. I think he is 65% to move in on the flop.

Tens- I think he is 25% to call with 1010.I think he is 60% to move-in on the flop

Ace-king- I think he is 60% to call with ace-king. I think he is a near certainty to move-in on the flop.

Rubbish hand- Seemed very unlikely as I had raised UTG, but obv flat-call is better.

It;s a horrible mistake, as actually Clemencon is the perfect player to favour the flat-call; able to make a good pass before the flop, very likely to move in on the flop if I suggest weakness by flat-calling.

47) EPT Deauville, Day One

Horrible hand against Surinder

I’m playing circa 9k, and have KcJc in the big blind(100/200(25))

Surinder raises to 550 on the CO. His range is actually very wide. Weak player calls in the small blind, and it is a crime now not to squeeze to 1,800.

Flop Q54ss, checked round (Pot 1725)

Turn Q544ss, I bet 1,200, Surinder calls.

River Q5449ss, I check-Surinder bets 2,400-I pass.

On the turn, my bet is because Surinder would have to bet 66+/any queen/probably a set or two pair on the flop, and Frenchie would have to bet on the turn.

However, I think the board is just too coordinated against two players, and they could both have checked draws or a four.

48) EPT Deauville, Day 1

I’m playing 31k, and have 10s9s in the small blind at 200/400(25). Surinder limps the HJ, Clemencon raises the CO to 1,425. I call, and Surinder calls.

Flop 975 rainbow, checked round (Pot 4,800).

I really should lead out here. My range is very mixed (I could be as strong as pair and gutshot or set), and I think I was way too fearful about Clemencon doing something clever here. This was really weak not to lead out.

Turn 9765hh, I bet 2,200, Clemencon raises to 6.6k, I call.

I suspected Clemencon might make a move here, and an 8 just seems so unlikely as alot of hands with an 8 have to bet the flop. He could have a flush draw, but I think a good player wouldn’t make the mistake of leaving me an opening to move in.

River 109765 hhh. Pot is 18k.

I think this is a clear spot to bet 15k to represent a flush. I really think he will pass an eight, and is unlikely to have a flush. I also gain against the air hands, that I will be passing to if he bets again.

He quickly checked, and showed Ax8h.

49) EPT Deauville, Day one

I raise to 1,200 with 1010 UTG+1, having been very active the last half hour of play on 200/400(50). A bad, young Spanish player calls the CO playin 15k, and it comes to Clemencon in the BB who makes it 5,200.I am playing 32k at the start of the hand.

I really should realise the chance of a squeeze here, and probably should be willing to move in. I get him off JJ/AQ/ maybe even AK and QQ, and will be picking up a pot of 7.9k. If not, I think I should flat-call, and my situation is better than just the hope of flopping a set.

I pass, Spanish player moves in, and Clemencon quickly passes.

50) France in January, two crappy bluffs

I made what are probably two silly little bluffs at pot against bad French player.

First in the EPT, blinds are 50/100, and I am playing 6d2s in the big blind, SB having limped.

Board comes Kd8×2dAd3x, and I bet 150(into 200), 300 (into 400), and 500(into 1,000).

He calls down, and shows Kx9d. Flat-call on the flop surprised me, this bluff really is aimed at Qd8x, Jd8x, 10d8x, etc. However, I think it is a mistake to narrow down a bad player’s range so much, when they are capable of making strange plays.

I think 800 on the end might work better than 500, which suckers a bad player in with the frustration of missing the diamond draw.

I think the river is not bad, quesiton is, is the 300 on the Ak82 ddd turn bad? My small diamond is of little worth, as it is unlikely to be good if I am called. I am basically trying to make him pass an eight with no diamond, and this might be thin. If I am betting the turn, I think I have to be prepared to bet 800 on the river.

In the 2k side event in Paris, I called a raise on the BB three way with A10. Flop was K87, checked round, turn 2,checked by the small blind.I bet, and bet again on the 9 river(perfect card, very difficult to call with one pair). The guy looked me up with Q8 for 3rd pair, which was fairly embarassing. I think once I have decided to play A10 passively, there is little point bluffing into a scary board.

51) Dom Classics, Utrecht, Thursday 29th January

The most frustrating pot on the first day came as I sat on the button with 9s8s. An old fish had limped into the pot, and good aggressive player raised to 380 (big blind was 80). He was doing this with a very wide range, so although a 3-bet would have been good, it was also great pot to play in position 3-way.

Flop 9×5c4c (Pot 1180)- two checks to me-c4cI bet 1,000- IR calls

Now, it is strange for the IR to flat here, and it probably hints a very narrow range. He almost definitely doesn’t have A9,109, a set, two pair or a big flush draw. He could have:
-Straight draw (76,63,32)
-Maybe a baby flush draw (But it can’t be 76,87,86, etc). So this looks unlikely.
-Maybe a low pair (88,77,66), but this looks unlikely.
-Ace king with the ace of clubs?
-Just maybe 109 or 98?

Basically, it really did scream straight draw.

Turn 9×7c5c4c (Pot 3180, my stack 7.5k)

He is unlikely to have taken the lead with this card (unless he has 63). The most likely hand for him to have is 76, which has probably about a 20% chance of having the 6 of clubs. I bet 1,600, he checked his cards and called.

River 9c7c5c5s4c(Pot 6380, my stack 5.9k)

I check, and he shows 6d3d for a straight. I really wonder whether I should turn my hand into a bluff here, as his range is so narrow. I think the significant hands he has on the river are:
- Baby flush; weird action, like 10%
- 63, fits perfectly. But wouldn’t always raise pre-flop. 70%
- 109, 97,J9. 40%
- Ac5x 40%
- 65. 30%
- A house. 15%

Basically, most of the hands he has to beat me are hands that I have a good chance of bluffing on the river. I have a great spot to rep a house or big flush, and it would be very difficult for him to call. I think I should bluff here, purely on the logic that he hasn’t got a house or a flush. I left myself the perfect stack size on the turn.

52) Dom Classics, Utrecht, Thursday 29th January

I have 21k in the BB, and the old fish raises 400 to 1,100. I look down at AQ, and he just looks weak. He has me covered. I do not want to 3-bet, so I just call.

Flop 753 (Pot 2400). He bets 2,200, and does not look confident.

I think I should check raise here for sure. The turn could be difficult to play out of position. Unless I have misread him for an overpair, it is very difficult for him to come back here. There is just too much danger of a hand like 65, J10 or AK.

I call.

Turn 75h4h3 (Pot 6,800, my stack 18.6k)

Now I definitely could start bluffing here, but it would have to be two barrels for my stack. Far easier is to bet the flop.

He insta-checks(did he pick up a draw?)

River 75543 hh. I check, he shows Ah3h (picked up a big draw on the turn)

So, should I bluff the river? His insta check gives away a lot, and I think takes away overpairs for sure, a straight, and a lot of sevens. What hands does it give him that I can beat? He could well have a heart draw and a small pair (or ace-king). The five is actually quite a tricky card to bluff, as he will call a five and maybe a seven.

So,he might pass:

Ahkh, Ah3h, maybe a seven, AQ, 22.

His range is too narrow to bluff I think, unless I really pinpoint on the insta check. If this shows a heart draw, significant hands will become a 3,a 7 or AhKh. I really don’t know whether a fish passes a seven here, maybe.

There may also be value in checking- I think I am snapping a bet, and expecting him to turn over a busted flush draw.

53) Dom Classics, Utrecht, Thursday 29th January

Against the fish again, I have AA on his big blind, my CO. I raise 140 to 420, and he calls.
Flop Kc8×5c, and the fish bets out 460 into 910.He doesn’t look strong. I raise 460 to 1,700. I maybe should bet more, as I am going to have to commit my stack on so many turns (club, Q, J, 9,7,6, 10?). This leaves him with 6k effective, pot 4300 going to the turn. If I raise to 2100, it is 5.6k into 5.1k. A small raise is not too worthy here as a) he is calling with any king, b) there is not too much value in him calling an eight; he will only call the turn only if he improves, and c) I might as well price out the flush draws

Turn K875cc. Not a bad card. (Pot 4,300, his stack 6k)

I bet a pot committing 5k, and he passes. I think this is bad, as it gives too much credit to a fish. The flop bet is actually perfect to be able to bet 3.2k, and then he is just not going to pass for 2,8k on the end. I think the pot shows how important it is to have a very clear idea of his stack, so it’s disappointing to get this one wrong.

54)Dom Classics, Utrecht, Friday 29th January, Day Two

I have 29k, queens in the small blind, and the two other players are a really good, aggressive young player, and on older guy. He is quite good, but too cally, and also a bit too eager to make a move. Round before, young guy raises, guy calls the SB, and I squeeze KQ all-in from the big. Now, one round later, young guy raises 1k to 2.8k, call on the button, and I have queens (pot is now 7.1k). I make it 9.6k, IR passes, and the older guy thinks for ages, clearly wanting to make a move.

I think he realised he had no FE, and otherwise would have made the move. This is just awful from me, as his range to get it in is so obviously paralysed by queens. I think the lesson for me is to a) realise how strong queens are here, and b) realise that I can still take a minute to think, and work out the best thing to do. There is just no chance of both players calling, so it is safe to make it 8k. There is also little chance of pass-call, as it had been a table of 4-betting all-in, and I should have realised how likely this was to happen.

55) Dom Classics, Utrecht, Friday 29th January, Day Two

The big blind is 1,400 (round is 2,900 with 100 ante), and I have Jd9d in the big blind. An old guy raises UTG+2 to 3,300, and if I call effective stack will be 21k more. I should have realised how strong this is likely to be. I think I still have to call, but should get away on the flop.

Flop K93, one diamond (pot 8.1k, effective stack 21k)

He bets 4,500 (pot will be 17.1k, effective 16.5k)

Normal strategy here is to call one, but this is based on a) some FE if I pick up a big card like 10d, Qd, or any diamond, and b) some value in hitting two pair/trips.

At this point, it should look very likely he has aces (he actually has trip kings), and I think I should make an unusual pass on the flop. If the turn is a diamond, I will have to get it in with 14 outs, and have no favourability, as his stack is too small.

I called, turn is a jack to give me two pair. I have to move in, and he snaps with trip kings. My call on the flop is based on the hope he might have AQ, AJ, etc, but these just do not fit with the bet size before the flop. There is little value to picking up a draw, and two pair or trips is only a 10% shot.

56)Dom Classics, Utrecht, Friday 29th January, Day Two

Immediately after this pot, I am in the SB with 21k. I limp with 103 off. Big blind is a young German guy, and probably quite good. Flop J22ss, I check for the CR, and he checks. Turn ace, I bet, he raises.
I should quite clearly check a second time here, this is really bad. CR is difficult if he has spades, but this is unlikely after his flop check.

57) Deep Stack Champs, Day one, 6th Feb. 2009

Two limpers for 400, I raise the button to 1,500 with K9off. Slade calls, and a good young Irish player calls.

(Pot 5.2k) Flop Qj3 c-c-c

Turn QJJ3ss c-c-c

River QJJ103sss (giving me 2nd nut straight)

Slade checks, Irish guy bets 5k. I tank and call, he shows 9s8s.

I think I should pass. I think there is little I can beat but a bluff, and he is good enough to realise that I can have AK alot here. Could he bet 98 off in the way? Probably not. Could he hold Kj, AJ, or J9? I really don’t think he would bet 5k with J9, and KJ and AJ are unlikely limp-calls pre flop. A bluff? It just did not seem a spot to come up with a bad bluff, and the board makes it difficult for him to not have a piece.

58) Deep Stack Champs, Day one, 6th Feb. 2009

CO and button limp for 400, I make it 2,100 in the small blind with A3off. Noel Furlong insta-calls the big blind, and two limpers call.(Pot 8.4k)

Flop Ak8 rainbow. I bet 3,6k, Furlong immediately says “raise,” and raises 10k more. It doesn’t occur to me to flat call, but maybe I can. He shows 72 off.

There were maybe a few clues- his speed of “call” and “raise,” and the fact he does not have a hand to represent here. So, is he more likely to be making an unusual move with Aq/AJ, or be making a bluff?

I think in live poker, it’s Ok to bet this board in general, and to know you cannot be bluffed off. A check-raise would be very strong, but risks a check round, and the turn just cannot be good for my hand.

59) Deep Stack Champs, Day one, 6th Feb. 2009

I raise the 200/400 (25) to 1,100 on the button with 104 off. The button is a weak, unspectacular Irish player, and calls.

Flop J62 (Pot 2.6k) I bet 1,200-call

Turn Aj62 (Pot 5k) I bet 2,500-call

River AJJ62 (Pot 10k)

He went to bet on the river, but awkwardly changed it to a check. This is either genuine, with a jack, or is a ploy to get me not to bet.

I think I am right to not bet the river, as it is the worst possible card. I should definitely 3-barrel most cards, ideally a queen or king. My bets are a little small, maybe could be a little bigger on the turn.

I think raising to 1,100 is too fancy, and maybe I shouldn’t be raising absolutely everything on the button. 1,300 followed by full pot stab on the flop might be the better blunt option.

60) Deep Stack Champs, Day one, 6th Feb. 2009

Five minutes from the end of the day, an English player called Guy has the chip lead and is raising most pots. He makes it 3.2k on the button, and I find aces! Blinds are 500-1000 (100), I am playing 110k. I make it 16k to try to commit him, but I think it is cowardly.

10k is an amount he a) might call, and b) might be tempted to 4-bet. I think he wanted to 4-bet, but was good enough to realize that the stacks sizes were awkward. If he 4-bets 10k to 32k, I think I really should flat-call.

Basically, I am too scared of playing aces OOP against a non-superstar player. There is nothing wrong with it, as I am going to check the j109 and Q109 type flops. This is another wimpy play with aces, and I should have made it 11k.

61) Deep Stack Champs, Day one, 6th Feb. 2009

I have raised 87 before the flop, two callers, and all check the J43 flop. Turn is a king, I bet half pot (2k) and the big blind calls. River is KJ433, pot is 7.5k, and he leads for 3.5k.

He looks nervous, and so I actually call with 8-high, in the hope that he has a busted draw and will throw Q10 high into the muck! He shows K5, a hand that he obviously was not happy with. It is an example of an amateur not knowing what to do, and making a pointless bizarre bluff, which is actually a good value bet!

Should I min-raise rather than call? I don’t know what these guys do with a king here? I would say most of them can’t bear to pass it. Obviously something bizarre has happened, so I don’t know what a fish’s range looks like here.

Most likely must be a busted draw. It could definitely be a suspicious A3 on the turn making trips, or a bizarre 2-pair making a house. I think the best conclusion, however, is that he does not like his hand, and he could well also have a jack or a four. I think a decent –sized raise is probably best here.

62) Deep Stack Champs, Day one, 6th Feb. 2009

The guy on my right is an incredibly tight, weak Irish player, and previously has almost min-re-raised with aces. He makes it 900 (150-300) 2^nd to speak, and I flat with KhJh. Nick Slade joins on the hijack for a 3k pot.

I think this guy has always got a hand here. I actually thought aces was less likely because of the raise size, but I should have considered it possible. AK fitted perfectly, as did pre-flop a pair from 99-JJ.

Flop KdJx3d (I flop the top two) Irish guy bets 3k confidently. Effective stack is 45k, Iraise to 10k, and he calls.

I think I should have thought a lot more about his hand, and realized that he so likely has AK or aces here. It is less likely he has queens, and KQ should also be less likely as well. He basically does not have a set, and AQ of diamonds is the only draw he can have.

Turn queen of diamonds, KQJ3 ddd (Pot 23k, effective stack 35k)

I bet 10k, and he calls. I bet 10k, as I cannot pass to an all-in if I bet bigger. I think this is right, as I think I definitely would pass to an all-in (I am pretty sure he does not go all-in with AA with the ace of diamonds, only with KQ and QQ). The 10k leaves me with 25k and a pot of 43k. This way. I can pass to a rivered diamond, ace, ten or queen if he bets.

I think I should realize just how predictable his actions are going to be, and how much control I have.

River blank, KQJ53 ddd (Pot 43k, stack 25k). He bets 500(!), and I raise to 10k. He calls, with AhAs.

So, I am left with 15k, that I did not get in. Should I have done?

I should realize what good news his 500 on the river is (He also asked me just before “How much do you have left.” This followed by the 500 I should have realize was not scared with KQ, but super-scared with AK or AA).

The 10k rather than 15k is also partly to leave myself a decent stack if I am wrong, and he had KQ. I think I need to be much more sure of my reads, however, and realise that I am always winning here.

The tight guy’s confident call on the flop should immediately tell me AK or AA. The turn of KQJddd should tell me he definitely does not have a flush. He might not even bet it on the flop, and might not raise Ad9d before the flop. Ad10d is the ONLY possible hand, and this is so unlikely.

So, at what stage should I bet more? I definitely can on the flop (maybe I should even say all-in), but is 15k a sacrifice worth making to get away from the outdraw by AK or AA. I think it is, as I can definitely get away if aces have me beat. (I am 76% favorite against aces).

If I make it 15k on the flop, now we are pot 33k, effective stack 35k. I have little chance of bet-passing the queen turn, as he then might re-raise 12k all-in with AdAx.

I think in general I should try harder to get it in on this flop, but the unusual deep stacks and awful player meant that it was right to control the pot, and give myself a chance to get away. In general, however, I need to be less worried I am beat, and more happy to get things in.

Should I move in on the turn? He so likely has AK or AA, that I am giving away the following outdraws:

AK with diamond- 18 outs 40%

Ak no diamond- 10 outs 23%

AA with diamond- 19 outs 42%

AA no diamond 11 outs 25%

Against the range, I am giving away about 30% outdraw, and giving him a price of 10k into 23k=30%.

However, I definitely can get away on the end, and I think for free in most spots. I pay nothing against a ten, a diamond or an ace, and I should realize that he does not value bet a paired five or queen. However, I will get an extra 10k on those ends that are good for me.

Maybe I should move-in, and give him roughly the odds to call? The only upside of this is that he might make a bad pass. Then I get 23k for free, whereas my action gives me a 70% shot of winning 43k (this is slightly better, 30.1k)

I think I got it right really, though it feels frustrating not to get the 15k in. When he makes it 500 on the end, he has 25k left. What do I bet here? 10k, 15k or all-in? He dwelled for ages on the 10k, so it felt about right, but maybe he also calls the all-in. Against another player, it would definitely have been right.

63) Deep Stack Champs, Day two, 6th Feb. 2009

Blinds are 1,500-3k (300). Benjo limps, I limp 66, button makes it 11k. Benjo calls, I call (pot 38k). Benjo is a good player, probably very tight, and has raised the last pot with no success. He obviously has a limp-calling hand, but I should realize it is likely to be a strong one, more like 99 or 88 than J9 of hearts.

The button is a fairly weak player, and does not really know what he is doing, but is not useless. He looked sketchy when making his button raise, and I should have realized that he probably had nothing.

Flop 862 ss (Pot 38k, my stack 115k, I flop the middle set)- checked round

Turn 8652 ss (Pot 38k) Benjo leads 11k, I make it 32k. He passes 99.

Turn play is correct, as he has so many sevens, and I might collect two bets against him. Because he is so good and fairly tight, there is a case for flat calling, and collecting a 45k bluff catcher on the end. However, he has 555 more than he has 888, and he might just call 32k and then 60k with 77.

My mistake is not leading the flop. I want bet from fish, call from Benjo, check-raise from me. However, Benjo will easily get away, and so this adds little value.

I should probably lead out, the fish re-raises me with an overpair and cannot get away, and Benjo has to call off with his 99. The only point in checking is to a) collect a c-bet from the fish, or b) to let an ace or king and get some extra chips. It is important to realize that if he is playing two big cards, he is only 12% to hit one on the turn. He also is unlikely to make more than one small bluff at the pot. Maybe he can get away from a check-raise with 1010 or 99, but he will hang himself if I bet. I think the right bet is about 15k. If he re-raises, all the chips are in for sure.

I should have realized Benjo probably had something on the board, that the fish was unlikely to bluff two overcards, and bet out. It is a spot where I HAVE to be looking at the fish, maybe even half-check, and see what he does. It is really important to concentrate on the physical tell here.

64) Deep Stack Champs, Day two, 6th Feb. 2009

Blinds are 2k-4k, I have 140k, and QQ in the SB. A new player has sat down, and makes it 9k from UTG+1. I make it 22k. This player LOOKS fishy, but has a massive stack, but I should trust my read that he is.

22k is probably a little small, but I want to a) get away from the all-in, and b) get away if he re-raises to 50k and I do not hit

(Pot 50k) Flop AA9 rainbow. I check, he bets 22k almost instantly, with a slight shaky hand.

(Pot 94k) Turn AAJ9 dd. I check, same shaky hand, he bets 34k (picks up 24k, and then adds 10k)

I pass. Maybe I can flat-call. He is probably bad enough to give up on the end. It would be 34k into 160K+, would leave me with 60k. I think I should definitely call.

Should I min-raise the flop to protect my hand? He might just continue bluffing, but is unlikely to. It seems to me that a bad player is a) unlikely to bet the flop with three aces, b) unlikely to bluff twice given he probably has showdown value.

If he is playing a decent hand, he almost must have showdown value (unless he has KQ). However, I should have realized the possibility that he had 65 or 87, and thought I was bluffing.

I need more insight into what fishes and average players do on the double-ace board. Without that, I should have called given very good pot odds.

65) Deep Stack Champs, Day one, 6th Feb. 2009

Jon Eames is the small blind, and is a very good player. I have 74 off, blinds are 2k-4k (400). Pot is 9.2k. He limps the SB (previous time, he limped, I had aces, and he insta-passed 9k more). I should realize that his limp is likely to be strong (he has As3c)

Flop 1064ccc (he bets 5k, I call to bluff a club)

Turn 10864cccc (he checks, I bet 8k into 19.2k, call)

River A10864cccc (he checks, I bet 13k into 35.2k, he tank-calls)

He was genuinely close to passing, and did not look at me. His reasoning afterwards was that I could turn bottom pair into a bluff, and it was a great read. He also was aware of the flaw in my line-would I really value bet the jack of clubs on the turn. Therefore, against a super-good player, maybe I should have gone for pot-pot.

I think my sizing on the river has to be a little bigger, he called as he just could not be sure, and knew how good his pot odds were. Am I better to go 9k-15k, or 8k-16k?

Maybe I should just raise the flop? 14k from me wins the 14.2k in the middle more than half the time, and I should realize some difficulty in bluffing the fourth club. I think he is very unlikely to come back over the top on this board (I should have realized he would play a little scared against me), and so raising the flop is much simpler than trying to outwit a super-good player.

66) Deep Stack Champs, Day one, 6th Feb. 2009

Same fishy guy limps for 4k, as does Benjo. Benjo is always passing, so my raise to 20k with 10s5s is right I think. Fish calls (pot 57.k, my stack 115k).

Flop 9s8s4c c-c

Turn 9s8s8×4x he bets 15k-I call

River 9s8s8×4x2x he bets 20k into 87k, I pass

Maybe I should min-raise (40k wins 87k), which is only correct as his bet sizing is so comically small. I think I am right to not bet the flop, it is gin if I hit, and the 98 Is good for his range.

67) Deep Stack Champs, Day one, 6th Feb. 2009

Exit hand- I have 89k, blinds are 3k-6k (500) (Round 13.5k). Young, tight French guy makes it 16.5k from middle position, with shaky hand. I push AcKc, and he has QQ. It’s so difficult, as it’s such a standard push 89k to win 30k for free, but I should have trusted the read on his shaky hand much better. I can still flat-call, and have some advantages playing AK like this (would be a good spot to bet out the Kxx and Axx flops, acknowledging I have to go bust if I am beat).

68) Friday 20^th February, Broadway £1,000 Main Event

I picked up black aces third to speak on the 100-200 level. I made it 550, and Trevor Reardon called in position. His range will be reasonable tight. Pot is 1,400, I have 14k, flop 632 ss. I check, he bets 1k. Turn Kh, (pot 3.4k), I bet 2k, he thinks for a while and passes.

I think I played it badly, with no clear plan. What is my plan is general with AA on a 632 ss flop, out ot of position, with effective stack 14 times the pot?

If I bet the flop- 800 must be right. If it is called, pot is 3k. I think I should bet either 1,500 and call a re-raise, or 2.2k and pass to a re-raise. In general, I am too scared about not getting accidentally bluffed off a hand, and probably miss value. I think I should bet 1,700-bet 2.5k on the end, and check-call a 6,5, or 4.

If I check the flop- Once he bets, I should know I am winning. I need to be more sure of this in my mind, and not worry about possibilities of two pair or a set. How is this check-call the flop-lead the turn viewed generally? I think it could be met with suspicion, even though I am repping ace-king. If I check, I think he is going to check most pocket pairs, and probably discontinue a bluff. I actually like my play, but I think 1.5k is far better than 2k. Once again, I just needed to give myself a bit more time to think. Once I have bet 2k, I think 2.5k is right on a lot of rivers.

If I check the turn as well as the flop- I think this sets up the slim possibility of him firing another barrel, but does set up a scenario where I can make a 3k value bet on the end, and probably not be believed. This may be better than my 1.5k-2.5k plan, and it may be better to play passively if my value betting cannot be strong. So, is 3k of value and the possibility of a second bluff better than a 1.5k-2.5k plan?

I just think in general it’s right to bet the flop, and try to get three streets against 88.Checking the flop-betting the turn also gives me the slight opportunity to make a horrible laydown. If I have only 5 times pot in my stack, then check on the flop is right.

69) Friday 20^th February, Broadway £1,000 Main Event

A weak player limps UTG for 200, I limp A2 off on the button, both blinds play in a 800 pot. Flop 543 rainbow to give me the wheel, weak player UTG bets 600, I make it 1,600. Trevor Reardon flat calls out of the small blind. UTG player mucks. Pot is now 4.6k. Turn and river jack and ten. Turn is checked, river he bets 4k, and I tank-muck. He shows 6d4d, and has owned me horribly.

I like my check on the turn (he said he was going to check-raise the turn). On the river snap 3k, and value-raise 2k, but 4k is very different. It took two pair completely out of the equation, seemed to make a set far less likely, and basically only fitted well with the straight. The only other possibility is that he has a) made a dubious call with 65, 64 or 63, and turned it into a bluff despite showdown value.

I think I probably should call, getting 30% pot odds. Let’s think about what he can have:

67 or 62- fits 100% on the flop, 100% turn and 50% on the river, although I would say 3k is much more likely than 4k

55,44,33- Fits 100% on the flop, 100% turn, but 25% on the river. Still, it would have to be a possibility

65- Fits 70% on the flop, 100% on the turn, 40% on the river

64- Fits 40% on the flop, 100% on the turn, and 50% on the river.

75- Fits 20% on the flop, 50% on the river.

63- Fits 30% on the flop, 50% on the river.

54,53- Doesn’t fit very well, but must be a slim possibility

A2- A slim possibility.

My main problem is the hand is the way I arrange my thoughts. A straight fits perfectly, nothing else fits very well, so it must be a straight. Still there are 2 other decent possiblites (65,64), 4 slim ones (set or 75) and three very slim ones. This probably gives me a better than 30% shot of having the best hand.

I think a few things went wrong with my play, that I need to consider:

-Why didn’t I look at him, or ask him a question?

-Why didn’t I think more about whether he would bet 4k with a straight?

-I give too much credit to live players to make the right play (here that is not calling cold with 64 on the flop)

- On the river, I have to be pretty sure to make these hero passes. That is just sometimes not possible against fishy live players.

- I need to play alot more attention to live play, as there is still so much I have to learn. In general, it seems that value bets are half pot and bluffs are 90% pot, and that was definitely the case here.

- Maybe I should value bet the turn, and get away from a check raise?

- I think too much about what my stack will be if I win/lose. This should not matter at all; the only important question is, am I getting better than 30%?

Let’s do some maths to find out:

67- 16 combos, 50% fit. = 8

62- 12 combos, 50% fit= 6

55,44,33- 9 combos, 25% =2.25

65- 12 combos, 28% fit= 3.2

64, 12 combos, 20% fit= 2.4

63- 12 combos, 10% fit= 1.2

75- 12 combos, 10% =1.2

Two pair- 18 combos, 5% fit= 0.9

So, there are 14 combos of a straight, and 11 combos of other hands. This gives me better than 30%, and so I should call.

70) Friday 20^th February, Broadway £1,000 Main Event

Five way for 1,000, I have J7 off in the BB. Flop Q65, checked round. Turn jack, two clubs on board. I bet 600, young Asian guy that won DTD £300 calls. River is offsuit deuce, I check-call 1,200, and he shows 43 of clubs for the nuts. I think I have to call here as so many draws have missed, but it is well worth noting the bet size. I think so many live players always have it when they bet half pot, and just maybe I could have got away with a better physical read.

71) Friday 20^th February, Broadway £1,000 Main Event

Alan Mclean has been limping about 40% of pots, and I call 83 of spades on the button. We are three way for 350, and the flop comes 972 with two spades. I check, and he bets the ace turn. I think I should bet this flop, as the slim flush over flush possibility is just not too dangerous with position.

72) Friday 27^th February, Walsall £1,000 Main Event

First hand of interest is after about thirty minutes. I raise to 125 in position with Kd7d, four callers including UTG limper who is pretty fishy.

Flop is 975 dd (pot 500). Fishy UTG bets 225, I call (pot 950)

Turn is offsuit 6, board 9765 dd . He bets 600, I make it 1,600, he calls

River is98765, he bets 1k, I call, he flopped a set of sevens

This one is fine I think, but is important for the next one.

I raise to 125 with 10d8d, four callers. Flop is 932 dd, he bets 250, I call (pot 1k)

Turn is 6 of diamonds, 9632 dd, he bets 600, I call (pot 2.2k)

River is offsuit ten, for 109632 ddd, he checks, I bet 2k, he call pretty quickly.

I think I missed alot of value here. It is absolutely crucial that he has bet a set of sevens on a 9765 board the hand before. Therefore, when he bets 600, he could have a set, straight, one pair, two pair, and basically I have to play for value.

I think I should raise to 1,700, pot is then (4.4k), and bet 3k on the end. If I raise to 1,700 (leaving myself 8k), and he comes back over the top to 4.5k, I think I can call, and pass the end. I think he is almost never going to accidentally bluff me.

I think this is a lesson in not making the standard play against a bad player, especially after he has chosen a really wierd line on an almost identical hand.

73) Friday 27^th February, Walsall £1,000 Main Event

A solid, standard Irish player raises to 375, and I call with Ah10h.

Flop is Aq10 rainbow. Check-check

Turn is AQ1010 flush draw, he bets 600- I raise to 1,600- he makes a fairly quick call

River is AQQ1010, he bets 2.2k into 4350, I call.

Should I pass here? I need 2-1 to call. I think he is almost never value betting AK, or turning AJ into a bluff. There is a small chance he might value bet J10, but a) there is only one ten, and b) this does not fit very well with his quickish call to the turn raise, whereas top two pair does. He obviously does not have a straight or a bluff, and so I think I should probably pass. I really hope this was not an emotional call. Against any slightly more clueless player, it would have to be a call, but this guy was the perfect player against whom to be able to make the laydown.

74) Friday 27^th February, Walsall £1,000 Main Event

I raise to 375 with QQ, a young kid who has played fairly well but fairly standard calls, as does Nick Hicks. Board is 986 rainbow, I bet 800 into 1,125, both call. Turn is 9864, pot is 3,525, I bet 2k, kid raises to 6k, and it’s a cinch pass. He shows 99 for the flopped top set.

Should I bet again on the turn? Nick most likely has 76,87 or 77. The kid probably does not have two pair, could well have a seven, maybe 1010, probably not 55, maybe JJ. It looks like for someone not to be beating me, they probably both have to hold a seven, which is unlikely. If I check, no one is going to bluff me, as they are very unlikely to have 97. If I check, the kid bets 2k and Nick passes, I probably have to call, so I think my line is probably right. I definitely should watch out more for tells though.

75) Friday 27^th February, Walsall £1,000 Main Event

This was one of the really ugly two. One fishy limper, I raise to 400 with Ah3h. The big blind calls. He is not too bad, but over loose, and over-cally. Flop is AKQ, check-check (pot 950), turn is AKQ6ss, he bets 600, I call. (pot 2150). River is AKKQ6 ss, he bets 1,200, I call. He has K5 offsuit.

I think I should just bet the flop. He is going to check-raise KQ, but no other hands. He is probably going to call K6, and I can get more value from it that way. He is going to call quite a few hands with 9 outs, and then I can get more value on the end. He also could quite easily have just a gutshot, and I think a bet-pass is right.

Do I have a pass on the end? I have two to one to call; there is very little chance he is bluffing, and some chance that it is a split. Most likely hands seem to be J10, turned set, or KJ. It is difficult to read him for three kings, as he might be unlikely to bet the turn with this. I think I should pass though, as fishes just don’t bluff like this twice. There is another big clue, and that this a slow check on the flop-indicative of a hand that doesn’t want me to bet. Question is, what does a fish do with AJ/A10 on the end? I think they probably make a smaller bet or check. I think another big clue is 600, followed by 1,200- often a value betting pattern, and I think this is a really bad call.

76) Friday 27^th February, Walsall £1,000 Main Event

The second of the ugly ones was against the Mad Turk. I raise with 1010 to 525, he calls from the small blind. His range is going to be very wide for doing this, and the flop comes 852 (Pot 1125, my stack 9k). I check behind, king of diamonds makes the turn K852 ddd, I call 800 with ten of diamonds. River three, he bets 2k into 2725, and I call. He has Kh9h.

It is difficult to know what to put him on, as K9 is a pretty clueless value bet here, after my flop check. It should be a bluff catcher. I think the check behind on the flop is awful; he is going to call alot of hands even if he is going to check-raise some, and I just shouldn’t be scared to play a pot against him. His speech play is:

After his flop check- “I’ll let him hang himself”; a sure sign he wants a free card.

On the end- “I know that you nev er believe me.

He also didn’t re-check his cards. I wonder if I might be better back-raising the turn (it is difficult to deny myself outs). I would make 800 into 2,100, and it would cost about the same. The big clue was that he seemed to make a blind bet, but actually had his chips ready to bet, dependent on the river card. I think this was a sure sign that he didn’t want a diamond, and therefore could beat me if it didn’t come.

77)Friday 27^th February, Walsall £1,000 Main Event

After Sunny Chatta sat down at the table, he raised to 1,100, I 3-bet from the big blind to 3,200 with K5, and he moved all-in. I left him the perfect stack size, and this was the wrong player to try a silly move against.

78)Friday 27^th February, Walsall £1,000 Main Event

I raised to 525 with 44, the young kid called from the button. Flop J97 dd, I check, he quickly checks. Checked all the way on a turn of J973dd, and river of J10973 dd. He shows Ace-seven off suit. I think I should turn my hand into a double-barrelled bluff on the turn. The difficulty is that alot of his hands should have a pair and gutshot (109,98,J109,87). The only hands I can bluff off are 55,66, or a wierd A7. I think I need to consider bluffing these hands on the flop, as if 44 is no hand at all. Against this player, a double barrel on turn and any river (e.g. on the ten, half the pot) does work well, as he is going to back-raise me on the turn if he did flop a big hand. If I lead the flop here, I have to shut down on the turn , unless I want to bluff with no outs. I think I am better to react to a flop check with medium bet-large bet double barrel.

79)Friday 27^th February, Walsall £1,000 Main Event

The kid raised 150 to 425 UTG, and I flatted with QQ in the big blind. Flop was 522, he bet 700 into 925 (this is a fairly big bet), I called. I now have 8.5k left, pot is 2325. Turn is 6522 (makes a straight draw), check-check. Perfect river 65222, I bet 2k, he calls. I think on the end, I should probably bet 3k after his turn check- he is much more likely to have 99-JJ now than KK-AA. It is a mistake, because of the perfect board, to not bet 3k here, when I beat more overpairs than not. I should know he is very likely to check behind on the turn (especially the six), and this is why it is a bad play.

I think the 425 is a big clue, and I should almost play the hand putting him on jacks. I think he is quite unlikely to raise to this amount with kings or aces. One option is definitely to re-raise before the flop, and bet-check-bet. I would re-raise to 1,200, and fire 1,600 (6.9k left), check, and then 3k. This make 5.8k, rather than 3.2k, and is enough more that I should have the balls to follow my read. If I make it 1,200 and he 3-bets to 3,600, I can call and get away on the flop. I have to try and get more value from hands when I believe so strongly he has jacks.

Better might be to check-raise the flop to 2k (leaves me 7.5k), but it would give me a horrible decision if he 3-bets. If I check-raise the flop, I can bet 4k on the end, and make 6.4k rather than 3.2k. I think the best line is to realise that he is likely to check the turn behind, and bet 1,5k, then 2.5k. If he raises the 1.5k, I can call and get away on the end; he is never going to turn his hand or turn ace-king into a bluff, and I need to take big advantage of this passivity.

Kings is a big worry here, but I think I am much more likely to get action from JJ,10, maybe 99 and even 88/77 that the right play is to lead the turn and river here. I am way too afraid of getting my stack in when I believe I am good. For example, an all-in check-raise on the flop could well be a winning play here. I should have watched his betting patterns a lot more closely, and made myself more certain whether or not he had jacks.

80)Friday 27^th February, Walsall £1,000 Main Event

A decent youngish player raised the 50 big blind to 225, a fish called, and I flatted ace-king and lost the pot. I should have realised the kid was raising to 225 with most of his hands, and 3-bet the hand for value. Out of position, it is more difficult to get value from ace-king 3-way.

81)Sunday 21^st February, Walsall £150 Side Event

I raised to 1,600 with AJ, Sam “accidentally” min-raised to 3,100, and I called for a AKQ ss flop. I called 3k,6k, and 10k all-in as the board became AKQQsss6, and he showed aces.

I think the accidental min-raise is a big clue, but I think I should pass the turn. His betting is very representative of value betting, and I do not think this turn is one he is going to make as a bluff or semi-bluff.

82) General lessons

- I am not concentrating as well as I could. There are just so many pots where a good physical read could have tipped the balance onto the right decision. I need to take preparations, in terms of a good sleep, much more seriously before the big events, and make sure that I am in a good frame of mind to play.

- Note the number of times that someone made a F/T or T/R double-barreled value bet by doubling the previous bet.

-I need to promise myself never to look at the board whilst the cards are being dealt.

- I am just too scared of protecting my stack. The aces vs Reardon, kings vs queens vs the kid, and failing to 3-bet ace-king, and failing to get full value from my 10d8d flush against the fish are all examples of not wanting to play deep pots, and missing value from pots.

- I can still do better with value bets on the end. A couple of times, 90% of the pot has been fairly quickly called, and I just wonder whether I should be over-betting the pot.

83) Empire Casino, £1,000 Main Event

I raise to 2800 on 500/1000 (75) level with KQ, and a weak Chinese player calls from the big blind.

Flop is Q87 (5,900, effective stack 35k) check-check

Turn Q1087 dd, he bets 4k, I call (13,900)

River Q10872 dd, he bets 7k, I call. He has J9.

I am getting 3-to-1 on the end, but there is a possible pass here. The flop check is really bad. He is not always going to check-raise with a straight draw, and I should just make a simple bet of 3.5k. I can either then check the turn and collect big value on the end, or bet 7k into 13k on the turn.

There is just no point being defensive against bad players in live poker, unless I have a tell. I should have kept this one simple.

84) Empire Casino, £1,000 Main Event

The same Chinese player raises to 3,000 UTG, and I flat in 3^rd position with queens. The small blind comes in, and the flop comes K96 hh (I have the queen of hearts). Checked to me, and I bet 6k into 10k. The Chinese player calls, and the turn is KQ96 hh, giving me the 2^nd set. I bet 13k of my 30k into 22k, and he passes. I think this one is perfect, as the 13k sets up a nice commiting 16k all-in bet on the end.

85) Empire Casino, £1,000 Main Event

I am playing 45k, and have been playing aggressively and successfully pick up the dead money. Previous hand, idiot limps, average player limps, Chinese man limps, I makte it 6k with 22 on the button and take it. Next hand, idiot limps UTG, average tight young player makes it 3.5k, and I have AK. There is now 6,200 in the pot. I ask him how much he has, and he says “20 or 25k.” I raise to 12k, and he flats. Flop is 982, I bet 14k, and he moves all in. He has aces.

The unforgivable mistake in this pot is not counting his stack. He did not have 20 or 25k, but in total actually 33k. Effectively moving in for 33k to win 6.2k is probably not worth it, especially with his worryingly small raise to 3.5k. I should flat, and take the advantage of playing the flop in position.

86) Empire Casino, £1,000 Main Event

Idiot limps for 1k UTG, I make it 4.5k with A9. Flop is q96 (pot 10.5k), and he insta-donk bets for 6,800. I have 35k behind, and decide not to re-raise. He has quite obviously (QJ,Q10, a straight draw, or just maybe a set of sixes.) Turn is a jack,he bets 9k and I muck. I think this one is right.

87)Empire Casino, £1,000 Main Event

There were a couple of small hands I value bet wrongly on the first day. This is the biggest thing I need to work on. Bad live players seem to call up to the value of their hand; therefore, the right value bets are the ones they actually make, of ½ to 2/3 the pot.

88) Empire Casino, £1,000 Main Event

The most disappointing hand came in the 75/150 level. Bad, loose player limps, Kimber limps the button, and I complete with 52 in the small blind. Flop is J43, 1^st player bets 400, Kimber calls, and I call with OESD. The turn is the 6. I immediately should banish thoughts that Kimber might have the 75, and get the decision right. There is 1,800 in the pot; I bet 1.2k, and both call (Pot is 5.4k). River is J7543, and I decide to value bet 4.5k. Both pass. Kimber had a set, and the Chinese guy two pair.

I think I overrate just how much likely these guys are to make a suspicious call, and I should probably make a more normal value bet on the end here. (2.5k is probably best, especially because one likely scenario is that I am splitting with one player.) On the turn, there is a very good chance that one of the players will have to bet, and I give myself the chance of massive value this way.

89) Empire Casino, £1,000 Main Event

One limper for 200, old guy raises to 700 on the button. I flat with queens, and we’re playing a 1,700 pot. I am pretty sure he has a good hand here. Flop is 632 cc, I check-call 1,200. Turn is 6322 hh, I check-call 1,200. River is 96322 hh, I bet 3k into 6.5k, he raises to 9k. It’s 6k to win 24.5k. I pass, and he shows ace-king of diamonds. There are so many reasons I should call here:

- It’s 6k to win 24.5k

- What is he representing? Most players flat with acesand kings here. Would he bet 1,200 on the turn with 99, a flush draw, or a full house?

- I’ve chosen a good line as it looks like I have nothing. Having done this, I have to be prepared to follow through on this disbelief with a call.

- The 1,200 on the turn is the crucial bet. This should look alot more like ace-king than anything else.

90) Empire Casino, £1,000 Main Event

I raise to 525 with 63 off. One guy calls in late position, and the same old guy calls. Flop is q63, he looks interested, and so I bet 1.2k. He calls, and a nightmare queen falls on the turn. Check-check, and the river is QQ963. He fairly quickly bets 3k, into 4k. I’m getting 7-3, and can beat 45. I pass, and he shows 45. I think I should call because:

- Bad live players do just not value bet this big with QJ here.

- He bet fairly quickly.

- He is really only representing a queen. A set of 6s or 3s is so much less likely when there are only two of each out.

91)Empire Casino, £1,000 Main Event

I’m playing 45k at the 300/600(25). Jon Eames is on the button with 7.2k. However, he has not been playing that aggressively, and I massively overrated the possibility of a move. One guy limps for 600, and I limp with jacks. Now, the old Chinese guy limps into the pot, and we’re four-way on a 855 rainbow flop. Pot is 2.9k, and I bet 1.5k. Chinese guy raises 3k more to 4.5k, and he has 14k behind. I go all-in, and he calls with K5 of clubs. One crucial thing is that he announced “raise,” and then thought it out (exactly the same as the set of 4s hand at Star City). The 3k more is obviously concerning. If I flat-call, we are playing a pot of 11k, and he as 14k more. It would be difficult to get away.

92)Empire Casino, £1,000 Main Event

I raise to 1600 with AsQs, the button and big blind call. Flop is A103 ss, so I flop the nut-flush draw, and top pair second kicker. Pot is 5.1k, and I am playing 42k. I bet 2.5k, and the button calls.

Turn is A10103 ss (pot 10.1k) I bet 4k-he calls

River is A101083 ss (Pot 18.1k) I bet 7k- he makes a great pass with A9.

I think it is the flop bet that needs to be bigger here. If anyone calls with a ten on the flop, they are unlikely to continue unless they turn a hand that can beat AQ. I think a small measured bet here is wrong. The best way to get all the chips in on such a strong flop is to start off with a big bet.

93)Empire Casino, £1,000 Main Event

I raise to 1,600 with 8h9h, and the same Chinese kid calls on the button, as does the small blind.

Flop is J108 hh, giving me bottom pair and OESD. Pot is 5.1k, and I bet 2.5k. Turn is QJ108 hh,pot is 10.1k, and I make a big bet of 7k. He calls, leaving himself 14k behind. River is nightmare AQJ108, I bet 7k, he goes all-in for 7k more, and I make an easy pass. He has K9, for a massive turned straight. I think I should bet just 4k on the end, as I can still get away just as easily against this player. Check-raising the flop would be good against a player much more likely to bet, but I think against this guy it is important to get money into the pot.