32Red Poker Blog

Hey guys, I’ve just busted from the latest GUKPT event in rainy Bolton, in just the third level of the day. I wanted to describe the crucial exit hand, partly to give myself a chance to think about the hand, but mainly to share with you the kind of thinking I try to do after I have made a mistake in a tournament. Sorry that I have written the hand in note form, but I hope it’s hopeful to keep a running tab of the pot size, and my thoughts on the hand.

The table is mainly weak and passive, but no awful players. Blinds are 70/150, and I pick up AQo in the small blind. and start the hand with 9,500, just under the starting stack. There are four limpers, and I make it a total of 875 to go (775 more). This is actually quite small, but on this poor table I am happy to play the pot knowing I have the best hand. It is very likely to go to the flop heads up in which case I will continuationm bet regardless, or 3-way, in which case I will play passively, and hope for good value if I hit.

There are 2 callers- the second limper, and the button. Both are fairly weak and predictable, but not really bad players. They are playing a small pocket pair or suited connectors at best, but could well be playing trashy hands like QJo or a rag ace.

(Pot 3075, I have 8525)

The flop is A73 rainbow, a good flop for me. The crucial lesson about the hand is to realise that this point now is the crucial decision point of the hand, and it is very important to be clear about that. I have two choices- either I can decide to committ myself for my stack, and try to get value with a bet-check-bet maneovure, or I can make a smaller bet, and retain my chance of getting away from the hand. I bet 1800 (leaving myself 6725); although it make not look like it, this is choosing the first option, and effectively commiting myself to the hand.

The first limper passes, and the button player pushes 10k over the line to put me all-in. It will effectively be 6725 to me, into a pot which will become 20275. (It is not important to be super-precise with the numbers, but is is crucial to have a good idea of the pot sizes). This means my pot odds are near enough 33%.

The other crucial piece of information is the body language. As it comes round to the player on the button, he is looking very relaxed, and giving off a lot of strength. I basically am hating the spot, but have to give it a good think. Here is how I judged the various possibilities:

A set- Felt very unlikely. He was just not good enough to make the overbet so quickly, and something about his body language suggested confidence, but not super confidence.

45 or 46- These would both be open-ended straight draws. It was possible, but unlikely, he probably did not have that move in his game.

A weaker ace- It was of course important to try to measure the chance of these hands, as it was only on these hands I was pinning my tournament hopes- realistically, they were the only hands I could beat. The situation did not fit too well with these hands, nor his confident body language, but there had to be some kind of chance- more so for AJ or A10.

A7/A3- The situation was looking like a near certainty for A3. It fitted perfectly with the play, and his body language. Strangely, I am pretty sure he would value A7 differently, and may well slow play it to some extent.

AK- almost impossible. The game had been very standard, and he would have raised before the flop for sure.

So, the situation was feeling like a dead ringer for A3 (maybe as much as a 60% chance). I would have to factor in some chance of A7 or a set, and definitely could retain some hope that he had a weaker ace.

The big problem in the hand is that of course I am not in awful shape against A3. Any seven, queen or running pair means that I actually have a 25% chance of a suckout, not far short of my 33% pot odds. It would therefore be a VERY thin pass to make- and this is why it is crucial to realise that my decision to bet 1800 effectively tied me to the pot.

I called, he showed A3 offsuit (a horrible call before the flop, but not unexpected), and the board blanked out.

It’s a really interesting hand, and I’d love to hear your thoughts. My only big regret in the hand is that I wasn’t watching the player on the button as the flop came down. HAd I done so, I could well have smelt a rat, and been able to manufacture a betting sequence to give me some chance of getting away.

Even without this, I just maybe should have bet something like 1,200 on the flop. Had the button player then re-raised,  I just maybe could have found a tough pass. IT’s a real good lesson in controlling a pot, and realising whether a bet ties you to the pot for all your chips or not.

Feeling gutted for such an early exit in such a weak field, but every tournament provides a lesson. Now looking forward to the EPT in Barcelona. Well, the weather will be better, and there won’t be fish calling so much with A3 offsuit before the flop!