Escaping the Marginal Hand

Escaping the marginal hand

You hold in the small blind, and call a raise from the button to see the flop four-way. The board comes , and you lead out with a bet. It is passed round to the player on the button, who puts in a big re-raise to put you all in. What do you do

A good player will see immediately that this is a marginal situation. However, a good player will correctly be troubled by the thought that our opponent may have a drawing hand, and that we could be ahead. 

Let’s assume our opponent is not completely bluffing, and have a look at the range of hands he is likely to be holding, given that he has raised before the flop.  

Category	Hand Description	Actual Hand
1) A Premium Hand	A straight	96,64
	A set	88,77,55
	Two pair	87,75,85
	An overpair	99,1010,JJ,QQ,KK,AA
	Top pair, better kicker	better kicker A8
2) A pair plus a draw	Pair plus straight draw	86,76,65,66,98,97
	Pair plus flush draw	A5 of hearts
3) A drawing hand	Flush draw plus two overcards	AhKh,Ah9h
	Flush draw plus one overcard	Ah3h
	Straight draw plus one overcard	A6

This table is not complete, and eliminates some weak holdings on the basis that our opponent has raised before the flop. The important thing to understand is how we fare against the different categories of hands.

Against category 1), we could be drawing practically dead against a set or a straight, and at best we are drawing to five outs (20%) against an overpair. This category of hands has us crushed.

Against category 2), we are ahead of these hands on the flop. However, this counts for far less when all these hands are drawing to so many outs against us. A hand like 76 can hit a 9,7,6 or 4 (13 outs, about 49%) to beat us, and A5 of hearts is drawing any heart, ace or five (14 outs, 52%). Against these hands, we are basically in a racing situation.

Against category 3), it is tempting to think that we are in good shape because we have top pair to our opponent’s paltry ace-high. However, the situation is not nearly so good for us. A hand like AK of hearts can hit one of 6 overcards or 9 flush cards (15 outs, 55%), and we are actually an underdog against it. Even the last hand, A6, has 8 straight outs and 3 overcards (11 outs, 43%) to make us only a marginal favorite.

What does this exercise tell us?

The exercise, of considering the whole range of hands our opponent could hold, is a very valuable one. In this case, it reveals that we are either drawing very thin against a premium hand, or roughly in a 50%-50% shot against the hands in category 2) and 3). The situation is not great for us, and on balance we should pass.

This kind of exercise will always reveal a heavy warning for this particular type of hand- namely, when we hold one pair, with a poor kicker, on a strong drawing board.
This type of hands is best played very passively; avoid leading out into the betting, as this will give you this difficult problem if another player re-raises you.

Poker hands like  are strong because they may flop a good draw themselves, but are dangerous when they flop just one pair.

There can even be very strong starting hands that become much weaker than they would seem. Let’s have a look at this example….

You hold  on the button, and re-raise an early position raiser. He makes the call, and you see a flop of . You bet the size of the pot after your opponent checks, and now he check-raises. Your opponent has one bet remaining in his stack, and so your decision is either to pass, or put him all-in……….

Before you rush to any decision, let’s have a look at the range of possible hands our opponent has, given his call of the re-raise before the flop. We will rank them in order of strength, and include our chance of winning the hand

Hand Description	Actual Hand	Our Chance of Winning
A set	JJ	8%
	1010	8%
	88	8%
An overpair	AA	8%
A big draw	AhQh	42%
	KhQh	45%
	AhKh	48%
Pair plus flush draw	AhJh	48%
Pair plus straight draw	99	60%
	QQ	76%
A misread – one pair	AJ	80%
	A10	80%

We cannot of course calculate an exact figure that we are winning; there are other considerations, not least the fact that some of these hands are more likely than others. For example, it would be a strange way for our opponent to trap us with aces, and a poor over-play of a hand like A10.

However, the table gives us a good idea of our situation, and actually shows us that we are in poor shape against the range of hands. There are more hands that have us as an underdog than a favourite.

Should we really throw away the kings?

There are not many situations where it is right to throw away an overpair, but this example is definitely food for thought. It relies on the fact that our opponent is playing a strong hand as he has called our re-raise, and that his check-raise tells us he may has probably hit the flop hard.

The reason I chose this particular hand? I called with it in a 32Red poker tournament last week after a long dwell-up. It is difficult, after all, to throw away kings.

Was I right? Yes and no. My opponent turned over a set of eights, but I hit the miracle  to fluke my 8% shot. Good job this is a game of luck as well as skill…….

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