32Red Poker Blog

The disguise level of a hand

Many poker players are keenly aware of their outs and pot odds throughout the hand, but there is one factor that few are aware of - their disguise level.

The disguise level is a measure of how well hidden your hand is. The highest disguise level comes when

1) There are many cards which will concern your opponent if they come, but actually do not help your hand at all.

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2) The cards that do improve your hand will not concern your opponent

Examples

The prime example of a high disguise level is when you are drawing to a straight on a flop showing two of a suit. For example, you hold , and the flop comes .

Let’s say you call a bet on this flop. The typical opponent will be concerned by the flush draw, but will give little thought to the straight draw.

Thus, there is a lot of strength to flat calling in this spot. If you miss your draw but a third heart comes, you may well be able to steal the pot with nothing; if you do hit your straight, you will have an opponent who feels comfortable because the flush draw has missed, and who may well pay you off.

The disguise level is even higher because your straight draw is a double gutshot. Look out for this, it means that opponents are far less likely to worry about a straight than they would if you held, for example,  on a  board.

We see that a high disguise level causes two big changes

1) You should be far more willing to continue with the hand, even without the apparent pot odds.

2) If you do continue with the hand, a flat-call becomes more attractive than a raise. You should be more willing to play out the pot because of the many advantages that will come your way.

Your disguise level is always higher if you are in position. You can act on the turn and river with any clues that your opponent’s action has given you to the strength of their hand.

Another example

Let’s say you hold  in position, and the board comes ; your opponent bets, and you sense he has you beat with one pair, maybe  or . You have bottom pair, no kicker, and only have five outs to make the winning hand (about a 20% chance)

However, even without the odds to call, a flat call in position is a strong weapon here, as your disguise level is at its maximum.

Look out for discomfort from your opponent on the turn, either in his mannerisms or size of bet. If you sense it, a whole range of cards will give you the chance to represent a big hand. As examples, let’s see how you could use the following cards on the turn:

•  or  - A bet or re-raise fits well with your flop call to represent that you have hit the straight with a hand like   .
•   or  - If your opponent shows weakness, seize on the opportunity to bluff that this card has given you two pair.
•  - If your opponent has a pocket pair, a card that pairs the top card on the board will be of concern.
•  or  - This card will make the board well connected, and be of real concern if your opponent has a hand like  
• Any diamond will allow you to represent a flush.

Position is of course the crucial weapon again. You can judge whether to use these cards to bluff by the three clues of your opponent’s action- whether he has bet, how much, and in what manner.

-Crucially, some of the few cards that will not be of concern to your opponent are your outs. A  or , for example, on the turn will seem much safer than most cards, and your opponent may hang himself with a big bet. The disguise level is perfect, and your implied odds of improving you hand are great.

A low disguise level

Let’s explain the concept further by looking at an example where your disguise level is very low:

You hold , and the board comes . You are drawing at the nut flush, and have two overcards which may be outs.

Why is the disguise level low?

-The cards that will make your hand will be of concern to your opponent. A third spade will slow him down.

-The fact you have the king as well as the ace means it is unlikely that he will be calling to draw at the flush- he will be drawing at best at the queen high flush.

-If an ace or king comes and gives you the best hand, they are typical scare cards, and may cause your opponent to fold.

-There are very few cards not helping your hand which are useful to represent a hand. A turned  or  or , for example, is not usually a convincing enough tool to represent a straight.

The disguise level is low, but of course you still have a very strong drawing hand, and should not pass. You have few opportunities to be creative later on by flat-calling, and so you should semi-bluff with a raise.

The best of luck and see you at the 32Red Poker tables!

Stuart “TrickyRock” Rutter